Altseason 2025: Still on Track, But Why Hasn't It Started Yet?

As we enter the second half of 2025, a major question resurfaces among crypto market participants: Will altseason truly occur this year? Altseason refers to a period when altcoins consistently outperform Bitcoin (BTC). While this topic has been widely discussed across crypto media platforms, current market indicators have yet to show strong signals that such a phase has begun. Instead, recent data suggests that the market remains in an early stage of capital rotation, rather than experiencing a full-blown altcoin surge.

Bitcoin Dominance Still High

Currently, Bitcoin's market dominance (BTC Dominance/BTC.D) hovers between 59.9% and 61%. Although this figure has slightly declined from its peak in May, it remains relatively high. Historically, altseason tends to occur when BTC dominance drops below the 50–60% threshold—often an early sign that investors are shifting capital into altcoins.

Altcoin Season Index: Rising, But Not There Yet

The Altcoin Season Index—an indicator that measures the percentage of the top 100 altcoins outperforming BTC over the past 90 days—is currently at 50. This is a significant jump from 12 in June, but still far below the ≥75 mark typically associated with the onset of an altseason.

According to the altseason phase framework, the progression usually follows this pattern:

1. BTC outperforms all assets

2. Ethereum begins to outperform BTC

3. Large-cap altcoins take the lead

4. Small-cap and meme coins skyrocket

The current conditions indicate that the market is likely in phase two or three, with Ethereum starting to lead in performance. However, smaller altcoins have yet to show significant gains.

Altseason Delayed, Not Canceled

Several analysts agree that altseason has not been canceled—it is merely delayed. Some of the key contributing factors include:

• Persistently high BTC dominance

• Greater institutional interest in BTC spot ETFs compared to altcoins

• The emergence of numerous new altcoins causing liquidity fragmentation

• Cautious retail sentiment following the 2022–2023 bear market

Willy Chuang of TrueNorth stated, “The current market conditions do not suggest that altseason has failed—only that it has been postponed. Major potential could still emerge between late 2025 and early 2026.”

Positive Signals: Approaching a Critical Point

1. Halving Effect and Capital Rotation

Following the 2024 Bitcoin halving, the supply of new coins has become limited. Based on historical patterns, a stable BTC phase is often followed by capital rotation into altcoins, as investors seek higher returns.

2. Institutional Capital Flowing to Ethereum

Although altcoin ETFs are not yet widely available, Ethereum has drawn investor interest through the launch of spot ETH ETFs. Whale accumulation of ETH further indicates that Ethereum is acting as the initial bridge in the capital shift from BTC to major altcoins.

3. Technical and Sentiment Shifts Emerging

BTC dominance has declined by approximately 7% over the past month. At the same time, altcoin trading volume is starting to rise, signaling that the market may be entering a cautious bullish zone—though risks remain elevated.

When Will Altseason Actually Begin?

Analysts from BeInCrypto suggest that altseason is likely to emerge after BTC volatility subsides and ETF demand stabilizes. Several altcoins such as Ethereum, XRP, Solana, AAVE, and ARB have already shown signs of outperforming BTC during the latest recovery wave.

Ming Wu from RabbitX estimates that we are still at the early stages of a new bullish cycle, and that altseason may start to materialize within the next month.

Altseason 2025 Remains on Track

Although no explosive rally has occurred as seen in 2017 or 2021, the foundation for altseason is gradually forming. By late July 2025, the market appears to be in a transitional period leading toward the altseason phase. If BTC dominance continues to fall, the Altcoin Season Index breaks above 75, and institutional capital flows into altcoin ETFs, then altseason could be confirmed between late 2025 and early 2026.

Recommended Strategy for Investors:

• Accumulate ETH and large-cap altcoins during phases 2–3

• Enter meme coins and small-caps as the index nears ≥75

• Use strict risk management (e.g., stop-loss orders)

• Monitor technical indicators, ETF developments, and regulatory shifts