Bank Indonesia’s third-quarter 2026 Banking Survey points to stronger new lending in the fourth quarter. Yet full-year credit growth is still projected below its 2025 outturn, while banks’ funding costs are expected to rise. The outlook therefore combines room for lending growth with pressure on funding expenses.

CREDIT OUTLOOK IMPROVES, BUT REMAINS A FORECAST

According to the survey results reported by Bisnis.com on October 22, 2026, the weighted net balance (SBT) for new loan disbursements is projected at 91.31% in Q4, up from 90.08% in Q3 and 88.92% in Q4 2025. Outstanding credit is projected to grow 8.20% year on year by the end of 2026, higher than the previous survey estimate of 7.51%. The latest projection remains below the 9.69% credit growth recorded in 2025.

SBT is a survey indicator calculated from banks’ responses weighted by credit. It does not mean that the value of new loans will grow by 91.31%. Instead, it indicates the direction of respondents’ views on lending. Forecasts can also change as demand, borrower quality, and economic conditions evolve.

WORKING CAPITAL IS THE TOP PRIORITY

Respondents expect working-capital loans to remain the largest category of new lending, followed by investment and consumer loans. By economic sector, manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, and financial intermediation are expected to receive the largest allocations. This points to continued financing needs among businesses as one factor behind the lending outlook.

Banks expect lending standards to ease compared with Q3. The Lending Standards Index (ILS) is projected to fall from 0.28 to 0.15. Because the reading remains positive, standards are still tight overall, although the degree of tightness is expected to lessen. Banks will continue to assess each borrower’s risk profile and repayment capacity.

The survey also points to stronger third-party funds (DPK) through Q4, with an SBT of 89.76%, up from 87.52% in Q3. Savings and current accounts are expected to grow more strongly, with SBT readings of 90.29% and 89.64%, respectively, while time deposits are projected to grow more slowly at 28.74%. At the same time, rupiah funding costs are expected to rise to 4.39% from 4.17%, and the cost of loanable funds is projected to increase to 5.73% from 5.54%.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR BORROWERS AND BANKS

For banks, a stronger lending outlook creates room to extend financing, while higher funding costs may add pressure to intermediation expenses. For prospective borrowers, an expected easing in standards does not guarantee loan approval or an immediate decline in borrowing rates. Decisions will still depend on each bank’s policies, a borrower’s profile, and market conditions.

The survey reflects respondents’ expectations, not confirmed outcomes. Actual lending, deposit growth, and interest costs in Q4 will provide a fuller picture of credit’s contribution to the economy.

Sources: Bisnis.com, October 22, 2026; Ipotnews, October 22, 2026; Bank Indonesia, Banking Survey Metadata (SBT methodology).