Several analysts continue to maintain a favorable outlook on coal mining companies with significant export exposure, despite the recent decision by Chinese importers to postpone purchases under June 2026 contracts.

According to Bloomberg data as of Friday (June 5, 2026), 13 analysts have issued buy recommendations for shares of PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG), while 12 analysts recommend holding the stock and 2 analysts suggest selling.

Bloomberg compiled views from a total of 27 analysts covering ITMG, with a 12-month consensus target price of Rp28,013 per share.

This target implies an upside potential of approximately 28.5% compared with the stock’s latest trading price of Rp21,800 per share.

Likewise, the majority of the 17 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg maintain a positive stance on PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI). Among them, 16 analysts recommend buying the stock, while one analyst advises holding it.

Based on that consensus, AADI’s 12-month target price stands at Rp14,304 per share, representing a potential gain of approximately 90.7% from its current trading level of Rp7,500 per share.

In addition, all six analysts tracked by Bloomberg have assigned a buy rating to PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY), with a consensus target price of Rp4,483 per share.

That target suggests a potential upside of about 128.7% compared with the current market price of approximately Rp1,960 per share.

Meanwhile, the consensus of three analysts covering BUMI also reflects a buy recommendation, with a target price of around Rp290 per share.

This projected valuation indicates a potential increase of approximately 105.7% relative to the stock’s current trading price of Rp141 per share.

Nevertheless, these optimistic assessments are now facing risks associated with potential disruptions to coal exports to China, one of Indonesia’s largest coal-importing markets.

According to Bloomberg News, the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (CCTD) reported that several Chinese buyers have delayed their June import purchases following Indonesia’s plan to centralize exports of several commodities, including coal.

The statement was delivered by CCTD during a press conference held on Wednesday, June 3, 2026.

Ma Yanxu, an analyst at CCTD, explained that Indonesia’s new regulations, which took effect on June 1, have slowed transaction processes, contributed to higher prices, and tightened supply availability.

It is also worth noting that Indonesia has reduced its 2026 coal production quota to approximately 600 million tons. In addition, the government has strengthened domestic market obligation requirements, compelling mining companies to prioritize coal supplies for local power generation facilities.

Market participants remain divided over whether the recent increase in domestic coal prices, triggered by a fatal accident in Shanxi, will be sustainable over the longer term.

Restrictions that primarily target privately owned coking coal mines may slow the recovery process and could extend its impact for an estimated three to six months.

At the same time, thermal coal producers have been offering discounts this week, as the effects of the accident are considered less significant for thermal coal than for coking coal.

Recent data also showed that coal inventories designated for energy consumption in China’s coastal regions increased by 87% year-over-year during the week ending June 1. Over the same period, average daily coal consumption rose by 35% compared with the corresponding period of the previous year.