Global oil prices weakened by more than 1% after Ukraine indicated that the United States’ intensive diplomatic efforts to end the Russia–Ukraine conflict have begun to make progress. The potential end of the war could pave the way for Western nations to lift sanctions on Russia’s energy trade, which may add more supply to the market at a time when commodities are already under pressure due to expectations of oversupply next year.

According to a Reuters report on Wednesday (Nov 26, 2025), Brent crude futures dropped by US$1.03, or 1.6%, to US$62.34 per barrel. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slid 99 cents, or 1.7%, to US$57.85 per barrel.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to visit the United States in the coming days to finalize an agreement with U.S. President Donald Trump to end the war, according to Ukraine’s National Security Chief, Rustem Umerov. However, Russia asserted that it will not accept any deal that deviates from its strategic objectives.

This stance has helped limit the decline in oil prices by raising doubts about whether a genuine peace deal can be achieved, said Ed Hayden-Briffett of Onyx Capital Group. Those uncertainties intensified after Russian missile strikes hit Kyiv on Tuesday, killing six people, injuring 13 others, and disrupting power and heating systems.

“It requires willingness from both sides, and it remains unclear whether Russia agrees,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

Many analysts expect oil supply growth in 2026 to exceed demand. Deutsche Bank forecasts a surplus of at least 2 million barrels per day next year and sees no path toward a deficit until 2027.

A peace agreement could allow Russia to ramp up production again to levels consistent with OPEC+ targets, according to Commerzbank Research analysts.

Sanctions on Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil, along with Europe’s restrictions on refined Russian oil products, have forced some Indian refineries to cut back on purchases. This has led to a decline in Russian oil exports and an increase in the volume stored in tankers—barrels that could re-enter the market if sanctions are lifted.

Russia is also considering expanding its oil exports to China, said Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on Tuesday.