The Indonesia Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) closed 102.90 points lower, or down 1.72%, at 5,896 on Friday (June 26). During the trading session, total transaction value reached Rp12.73 trillion, with approximately 20.78 billion shares changing hands.

Throughout the past week, the benchmark index declined on four trading days while posting gains on only two occasions. As a result, the IHSG recorded a weekly loss of 4.55%.

Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) Corporate Secretary Kautsar Primadi Nurahmad stated that the stock market ended the June 22–26, 2026 trading period in negative territory.

IDX data showed that total market capitalization declined by 4.51%, falling from Rp10,788 trillion to Rp10,302 trillion. Meanwhile, average daily trading volume dropped 26.01%, decreasing from 34.03 billion shares to 25.18 billion shares.

Average daily transaction value also fell by 29.13%, declining from Rp24.80 trillion to Rp17.58 trillion.

In addition, average daily trading frequency decreased by 22.95%, from 2.24 million transactions to 1.73 million transactions by the end of the week.

"Foreign investors recorded net selling of Rp537.25 billion today. Cumulatively throughout 2026, foreign investors have posted net sales totaling Rp71.681 trillion," Kautsar said in an official statement issued on Friday (June 26).

How is the IHSG expected to perform in the coming week?

Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia VP of Equity Retail, Oktavianus Audi, explained that last week's 4.55% decline was primarily driven by foreign investors' net selling of approximately Rp3.4 trillion across the market. According to him, the outcome of Morgan Stanley Capital International's (MSCI) market classification review remains one of the major factors weighing on investor sentiment.

"Although MSCI decided not to downgrade Indonesia to frontier market status, the warning remains in place. If regulators fail to implement meaningful reforms by November 2026, the downgrade risk will continue to overshadow the market," Oktavianus told CNNIndonesia.com on Sunday (June 28).

For Monday's (June 29) trading session, he expects the IHSG to move within a consolidation phase while maintaining a limited upward bias. The index is projected to trade between the support level of 5,772 and the resistance level of 6,040, as the MACD indicator has started to show easing downside momentum.

He added that market direction will continue to be influenced by several factors. Globally, investors remain focused on developments surrounding the Middle East conflict despite the peace agreement reached between the United States and Iran.

Market uncertainty could rise again if additional military attacks occur. On the other hand, smoother shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has contributed to the recent decline in global crude oil prices.

Domestically, investors are monitoring the government's decision to place up to Rp400 trillion in funds with state-owned banks (Himbara) as of June 26, 2026. The measure is expected to support banking liquidity while encouraging credit expansion.

Market participants are also awaiting Indonesia's June 2026 inflation data, which is projected to increase by 3.1% year-on-year.

Although this figure is higher than the previous reading, it remains within Bank Indonesia's target range and is therefore expected to generate only a moderate market reaction.

Based on his technical analysis, Oktavianus recommends several stocks. The first is PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA), which gained 2.49% to close at Rp6,175 last week and is projected to reach Rp6,600 this week.

His second recommendation is PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI), which ended last week at Rp3,990 and is expected to advance to Rp4,230.

He also recommends PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BBRI), which rose 0.70% to Rp2,870 last week and is projected to reach Rp3,050 during the current week.

Meanwhile, MNC Sekuritas Technical Analyst Herditya Wicaksana believes the IHSG may continue its corrective trend throughout the week. He projects the benchmark index to trade between support at 5,736 and resistance at 6,112.

"Investors will closely monitor U.S. employment data and the Federal Reserve's policy direction, which is still expected to remain hawkish. Domestically, the market is awaiting Indonesia's inflation and PMI releases while also watching the rupiah's movement against the U.S. dollar, along with commodity prices, particularly oil and gold," Herditya said.

According to him, global sentiment will remain the primary driver of market performance, especially regarding expectations for U.S. monetary policy.

Meanwhile, domestic economic indicators are expected to remain relatively stable and could become an important determinant of the IHSG's direction over the coming week.

Herditya also highlighted several stock recommendations. He suggested monitoring PT Buana Lintas Lautan Tbk (BULL), which closed at Rp350 last week and is projected to climb to Rp378.

He also recommended PT Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR), which ended the week at Rp2,940 and is expected to advance to Rp3,410.

Another recommendation is PT Wismilak Inti Makmur Tbk (WIIM), which closed at Rp1,655 last week and is projected to reach Rp1,755 during the week.