Bitcoin Expected to Peak in 2025-2026, Potential Bear Market Could Drop 70-85%

Bitcoin is projected to reach its price peak between 2025 and 2026, followed by a bear market that could see a price decline ranging from 70% to 85%, based on historical halving cycle patterns.

Bitcoin in the Post-Halving Phase

Currently, Bitcoin is in a crucial phase following its fourth halving in April 2024. Historical data suggests that Bitcoin’s price typically moves sideways for several months post-halving before experiencing a significant rally within 12 to 18 months.

However, the key question remains: When will the next Bitcoin bear market occur after its next price peak?

According to Glassnode’s analysis, Bitcoin’s current cycle closely resembles the 2015-2018 cycle, which ended with a nearly 2,000% return.

“On the other hand, BTC’s performance since the fourth halving (April 2024) is most similar to the second halving, where prices remained flat for months before a sharp rally,” Glassnode stated.

When Will the Next BTC Bear Market Begin?

Historically, after reaching all-time highs, Bitcoin almost always undergoes a major correction that lasts for 12 to 18 months in a bear market phase. In previous cycles, Bitcoin’s price dropped between 70% and 85% from peak to bottom.

For instance, after hitting an all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021, Bitcoin plunged to $15,500 in November 2022, marking a 77% decline.

If this pattern repeats, the next Bitcoin bear market will largely depend on how high its next peak reaches.

Typically, the bear market phase begins a few months after Bitcoin’s peak, with the steepest declines occurring in the first 6 to 9 months.

If Bitcoin reaches its peak in mid-2025 (approximately 12 to 18 months after the April 2024 halving), then the biggest correction is likely to occur between late 2025 and early 2026. Afterward, Bitcoin may enter a more stable recovery phase, gaining momentum leading up to the fifth halving in 2028.

Based on past data, if Bitcoin’s next peak reaches $250,000 - $300,000, its bear market correction could see prices drop to $50,000 - $90,000.

If BTC peaks between April and October 2025, its bottom could occur between Q4 2026 and Q1 2027. Meanwhile, a more stable recovery phase would likely take shape by late 2027 or early 2028, setting the stage for the fifth halving in 2028.

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