Bank Indonesia (BI) projects that prices of goods will rise further, meaning inflation will increase, in December 2026 and March 2027. This is reflected in the General Price Expectations Index (IEH) of 165.0 for December 2026 and 180.2 for March 2027. Both are higher than the previous period's readings of 149.9 and 177.9, respectively.

BI Communications Department Executive Director Ramdan Denny Prakoso said in a written statement on Tuesday (10/11/2026) that, on the price side, inflationary pressure in December 2026 and March 2027 is expected to increase.

October retail sales expected to improve

BI also reported that the Real Sales Index (IPR) for October 2026 is expected to grow 1.0% year on year, higher than 0.6% in September 2026. Month on month, October retail sales are expected to grow 1.0%, driven mainly by other household equipment, motor vehicle fuel, and food, beverages and tobacco.

According to Ramdan, the October increase was mainly driven by higher sales of motor vehicle fuel, positive growth in spare parts and accessories, other goods, and food, beverages and tobacco.

What about September?

In September 2026, the IPR grew 0.6% year on year, slowing from 1.3% in August, supported by higher sales of spare parts and accessories and other goods. Month on month, September retail sales fell 3.1% after rising 0.8% in August, in line with a normalization of demand after the Indonesian Independence Day period.

Sources

• BI Prediksi Harga Barang Makin Mahal pada Desember 2026 dan Maret 2027 — CNN Indonesia, Selasa, 10 November 2026. https://www.cnnindonesia.com/ekonomi/20261110164839-532-1425514/bi-prediksi-harga-barang-makin-mahal-pada-desember-2026-dan-maret-2027