The rupiah closed this week's trading stronger against the US dollar on Friday (13/11/2026), after sinking the day before to a record-weak close.

Rupiah movement

Citing Refinitiv data, the rupiah closed at Rp18,190 per US dollar, up 0.19% from the previous close of Rp18,225. The rupiah opened at Rp18,225 and at one point weakened to Rp18,245, but the pressure eased and it turned stronger to Rp18,170 before closing at Rp18,190.

The US dollar index (DXY) at 15:00 WIB was seen slightly lower by 0.03% at 103.141. The dollar's movement came ahead of the release of the October 2026 US Producer Price Index (PPI) that evening. The consensus expected PPI to rise to 6.6% year on year from 6.3% in September, although the monthly rise was forecast to slow to 0.4% from 1.3%. The data could affect Fed interest rate expectations and the dollar's direction.

MSCI issue's impact on the bond market

Domestically, the MSCI issue that had shaken the financial market returned to the spotlight after the government disclosed its impact on the bond market. Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara explained that fears of a possible downgrade of Indonesia to Standalone Market status had pressured demand for government bonds and pushed up Government Securities (SBN) yields.

"As of last October there was pressure in the financial market, especially that MSCI would put the Indonesian equity market as standalone. The financial market was not conducive," Suahasil said at the APBN KiTa press conference on Friday (13/11/2026).

The 10-year SBN yield briefly touched 7.707% on 28 October 2026, exceeding the budget assumption of 6.9%. Even so, demand for government bonds began to strengthen again from late October.

Exchange rate above assumptions and the budget deficit

Pressure on the rupiah this year is reflected in an actual exchange rate that exceeds government assumptions. The Finance Ministry recorded the rupiah at Rp18,154 per US dollar at the end of October 2026, weaker than the budget assumption of Rp16,500 and the government outlook of Rp17,500.

On the fiscal side, the state budget deficit through October 2026 reached Rp379.3 trillion, or 1.47% of gross domestic product (GDP). The deficit came from state revenue of Rp2,618 trillion and state spending of Rp2,997.2 trillion. The government stressed its commitment to keep the deficit below the 3% of GDP limit. "We keep the deficit below 3% of GDP," Suahasil said.

Sources

• Rupiah Ditutup Menguat 0,19% ke Rp 18.190 per Dolar AS — CNBC Indonesia (Elaine Tairio), 13 November 2026 15:13 WIB. https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/market/20261113151023-17-785065/rupiah-ditutup-menguat-019-ke-rp-18190-per-dolar-as