Consumer Goods Imports Plunge Ahead of Ramadan 2025, Raising Concerns Over Weakening Purchasing Power

The usual surge in consumer goods imports ahead of Ramadan and Eid has taken an unexpected downturn in 2025. Economists see this as a strong indication of declining purchasing power among Indonesians.

According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), cumulative consumer goods imports for January-February 2025 amounted to only $3.11 billion, plunging 14.28% from $3.63 billion in the same period last year.

In February 2025—one month before Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr—consumer goods imports reached $1.47 billion, marking a 10.61% drop from January 2025's $1.64 billion. Compared to February 2024’s $1.86 billion, the decline was even sharper at 21.05%.

Election Impact and Inflation Trends

Mohammad Faisal, Executive Director of the Center of Reform on Economics (Core) Indonesia, explained that in 2024, higher consumer imports were driven by increased government and household spending due to the Presidential and Legislative Elections. This caused inflation to rise to 2.75% year-on-year (yoy), whereas February 2025 saw a deflation of 0.09% yoy.

Even without the election factor, consumer imports in February 2023 still increased by 6.42% ahead of Ramadan, with inflation peaking at 5.47% yoy.

Economic Risks and Policy Contradictions

Bright Institute’s Research Director, Andri Perdana, called the sharp decline in imports an anomaly, highlighting the ongoing weakening of purchasing power since early 2023.

Similarly, Celios Executive Director Bhima Yudhistira noted that this trend contradicts the pro-import stance of Trade Ministry Regulation No. 8/2024.

"If imports are falling despite policies favoring imports, this suggests a high risk of economic recession," Bhima warned.

Esther Sri Astuti, Executive Director of Indef, emphasized that declining imports indicate lower real incomes due to widespread layoffs. She urged the government to implement expansionary economic policies to prevent further economic slowdown in Q1 2025.