PT Pemeringkat Efek Indonesia (Pefindo) expects corporate debt issuance in 2027 to reach Rp147.65 trillion to Rp189.23 trillion, with a midpoint of around Rp170.23 trillion. Meanwhile, corporate debt maturing in 2027 is estimated at Rp178.13 trillion.

Refinancing remains a pillar

Pefindo Rating Director Hendro Utomo said the projection indicates that refinancing needs will remain one of the supports for new debt issuance next year. "The main opportunity for issuance in 2027 comes from rising refinancing needs, together with working capital and investment needs in line with growth in economic activity," he said at the TICMI Capital Market and Business Conference (TCBMC 2026) at the IDX building in Jakarta on Thursday (12/11/2026).

Opportunities on the demand side

Other opportunities come from the demand side. Improving market sentiment and the return of foreign capital inflows could strengthen bond absorption if pressure on interest rates and the rupiah starts to ease. Wider bank investment in corporate bonds, and their use as repo collateral, could also raise liquidity and broaden the investor base.

Challenges: high yields and competition for funds

The main challenge is the risk that global and domestic yields stay high, which limits room to lower issuance costs. Hendro explained that the Fed is likely to raise its benchmark rate again in December 2026 and to maintain monetary tightening through 2027 because inflation is hard to bring down. At the same time, rising global government debt is also pushing up the supply of debt securities in the world bond market.

"And we see that as a result the direction of yields at the global level will also stay at a high level in 2027. This condition will be a challenge that countries around the world, including Indonesia, will have to face," he said.

Other challenges include the government's large financing needs and the competitive yields on SRBI, which intensify competition for investor funds. In addition, stable bank lending rates amid rising bond yields could reduce the competitiveness of debt-securities funding, especially for lower-rated issuers.

Capital-flow risk from the MSCI reclassification

Hendro also noted that pressure on the stock market amid the MSCI reclassification risks triggering foreign capital outflows, which in turn would affect the domestic debt market. "The risk of a shift in investor sentiment toward Indonesian assets also needs attention because pressure on capital flows and the rupiah can affect the risk premium and funding costs," he concluded.

Sources

• Pefindo Proyeksi Rilis Obligasi Korporasi Tembus Rp170 Triliun di 2027 — Bisnis.com, 12 November 2026. https://market.bisnis.com/read/20261112/92/2020875/pefindo-proyeksi-rilis-obligasi-korporasi-tembus-rp170-triliun-di-2027