DIGIVESTASI - The General Elections Commission (KPU) has officially named Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabumin Raka as President and Vice President of the Republic of Indonesia for the 2024-2029 period. This is because the Constitutional Court (MK) rejected all lawsuits filed by members of the MD camp Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar and Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud regarding the dispute over the general election results (PHPU).

Prior to this decision, many foreign economic institutions were active in expressing their opinions on the situation of the Indonesian economy if Prabowo Subianto became president. One of them was the American rating agency Fitch Ratings. 

"It is highly unlikely that Indonesia's economic policies will change under the leadership of Mr. Prabowo Subianto," Fitch said in a press release posted on its website some time ago. "This suggests continuity." "However, uncertainty around medium-term fiscal policy is increasing," it added. 

However, Fitch said it was too early to predict the future of the economy. It said when Prabowo takes office in October 2024, the direction of the Indonesian economy will become clearer regarding the next government's fiscal policy. 

"We expect Mr Prabowo to remain focused on infrastructure development, including the construction of a new capital city, and continue the current government's efforts to support downstream raw materials and expand battery and electric vehicle production," the global organization said. 

Fitch expects Indonesia's real GDP growth to remain at or slightly above 5% this year and next, consistent with pre-pandemic conditions. Meanwhile, Fitch expects monetary and fiscal policies to continue to support Indonesia's macroeconomic stability at least through this year. 

"Nevertheless, given some of Mr Prabowo's campaign promises, such as the free school meal program and dairy products, which could reach around 2% of annual gross domestic product (GDP), medium-term fiscal policy "We think the risks are increasing," he explained. 

"Mr. Prabowo's statement that Indonesia could maintain a much higher public debt-to-GDP ratio also suggests there are risks to our fundamental fiscal outlook. ``We are calling for a significant increase in the level of government revenue generated by the government,'' she added. 

Prabowo's victory was also highlighted in the Asia-Pacific Economic Preview Weekly Report published by Moody's Analytics on February 19-23, 2024. I hope Mr. Prabowo's Gerinda Party can join the coalition government, he said. 

Meanwhile, Moody's Analytics gave the same forecast as Fitch Ratings regarding the country's economy. Jokowi's populist politics will continue. 

"On economic policy, the former general, who is running for president for the third time, has indicated his intention to stick to the policies of President Joko Widodo, who is nearing the end of his term," the report said.

Mention Sri Mulyani 
Earlier, media outlet Singapore News Asia (CNA) said, ``Comment: Mr. Prabowo is trying to become Indonesia's next president, but his challenge is to ensure continuity in the cabinet.'' The website quoted Australian PhD expert Andriy Suryanta. An awardee of the Australian National University's Crawford School of Public Policy. The Interpreter was first published by the Lowy Institute. 

This analysis also touches on the Indonesian economy. The promises made by Pak Prabowo are clearly a continuation of President Jokowi's grand coalition style and extensive infrastructure plans, including increased defense spending and social welfare. 

Referring to how debt may increase. There was also talk of what would happen if current Finance Minister Sri Mulyani left her post, even though she is one of the pillars of the Jokowi administration. 
"Grand coalitions usually mean offering ministerial posts in return for party loyalty. But the revenue strategy is still unclear, so funding these programs may require more government debt," the analysis said. 

He adds: "The potential easing of sovereign debt discipline is a growing concern among investors, given that Indonesia has been praised for its astute fiscal management under the leadership of current Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati. This raises concerns," he added. . 

"To allay the concerns of international investors and convey a message of continuity, Mr. Prabowo should choose his successor cabinet very carefully," he said.

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