Indonesia is at risk of failing to achieve developed country status by 2045. This is due to suboptimal domestic economic growth. One of the conditions for a developing country to "move up" to become a developed country is to maintain an annual economic growth rate of 7 percent for 15 consecutive years.

In the release of the White Paper entitled "From LPEM for Indonesia: Economic and Social Agenda 2024-2029," it was revealed that Indonesia has not yet met the necessary criteria to become a high-income country like China, Malaysia, South Korea, Thailand, and Brazil.

Based on the records of LPEM FEB UI, various factors that may lead Indonesia to fail to become a developed country can be seen in the stagnant economic growth that has never exceeded the range of around 5 percent. Furthermore, annual credit growth has never reached 15 percent.

In addition, the tax-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio has never exceeded 11 percent and has even been as low as 9.9 percent in the last decade. The contribution of the industry to the GDP has also declined to around 18 percent, and extreme poverty has remained at around 1.7 percent.

The Head of LPEM FEB UI, Chaikal Nuryakin, describes the stagnant economic conditions in Indonesia as if hitting a wall at every step.

"It seems that we hit a glass ceiling everywhere," said Chaikal, who is also one of the authors of the white paper.

Therefore, he emphasizes the importance of having a contingency strategy to mitigate the economy if Indonesia fails to become a developed country.

One of the steps that can be taken is to prepare a strong and innovative middle class in Indonesia, which represents about 40-80 percent of the total population.

"Indonesia needs to have a strong and innovative middle class. If Indonesia does not achieve developed country status by 2045, Indonesia will still have a strong and productive middle class," says Chaikal.

According to him, this preparation can be done by increasing equal opportunities and access to quality education and healthcare, creating formal sector jobs, building basic infrastructure, and providing comprehensive social security.

"This will be the main and only capital to realize the dream of Indonesia Emas in 2045," he explains.

The Dean of FEB UI, Teguh Dartanti, adds that Indonesia should focus on efforts to reduce poverty, decrease inequality, and build a strong and innovative middle class.

"We believe that these are very critical notes. Whether this dream is still realistic or not, or whether we need to reconsider whether Indonesia will be Indonesia Emas 2045 or Indonesia Cemas 2045," he said.

He also reminds that economic growth in the early period of President Joko Widodo's administration was inclusive, but in subsequent periods, it became less inclusive.

"This means that the government's programs were more focused on the bottom 20 percent and the top 10 percent, while the middle-class group, which contributes about 40-80 percent of the total population, was often overlooked," he added.