JAKARTA — Analysts remain broadly positive on PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk., but the company’s upcoming earnings must answer whether its first quarterly profit can survive a major regulatory change to its ride-hailing business.

GoTo plans to announce second-quarter and first-half 2026 results on July 29. The figures will cover the six months ended June 30 and will be unaudited and unreviewed.

Management will discuss the results in an investor conference call at 7 p.m. Jakarta time.

A Bloomberg consensus cited by local reports includes 24 buy recommendations, seven holds and no sell ratings. Approximately 77% of the 31 participating research houses therefore recommend buying the stock.

The average target price is Rp80. Against GoTo’s July 28 close of Rp50, that implies theoretical upside of 60%.

A High Target Does Not Mean the Market Is Convinced

GoTo’s share price has remained around Rp50 since May. On July 28, the stock opened and closed at Rp50 without moving above or below that level during the session.

The gap between the market price and analyst targets can be interpreted in two ways.

The bullish interpretation is that the stock is materially undervalued relative to GoTo’s improving earnings and cash generation.

The more cautious interpretation is that investors are applying a large discount because they remain uncertain about regulation, competitive intensity, liquidity and whether profitability can be sustained.

OCBC Sekuritas research head Gani described Rp50 as an attractive potential entry point, while also warning that the decline in trading liquidity deserves attention.

Limited liquidity can prevent a stock from responding efficiently to positive news. It can also make it more difficult for large investors to build or reduce positions without affecting the order book.

The Eight-Percent Commission Is the Central Risk

Indonesia introduced a new revenue-sharing framework for motorcycle ride-hailing services on July 1.

Drivers are now entitled to at least 92% of the basic trip fare, limiting platforms such as Gojek and Grab to an 8% commission. The previous maximum was approximately 20%.

For GoTo, the rule directly affects the economics of its two-wheel passenger-mobility operation.

A lower commission can reduce revenue earned from each trip unless the company offsets the change through greater transaction volume, reduced incentives, premium services, subscriptions, advertising or other fees permitted under the regulation.

The first-half financial statements will not contain a full operating period under the new rule because their reporting date is June 30.

This makes management guidance particularly important. Investors will want to know how much revenue is exposed, what cost adjustments are possible and whether GoTo’s full-year profitability outlook remains achievable.

Research Houses Still See Material Upside

Maybank Sekuritas maintains a buy rating and Rp80 target.

Morgan Stanley rates GoTo equal weight with a target of Rp79. UOB Kay Hian has a buy recommendation and Rp78 target, while Macquarie rates the stock outperform with a target of Rp72.

BRI Danareksa maintains a buy recommendation but reduced its target from Rp80 to Rp70 after incorporating the new commission rule.

The targets imply upside of between 40% and 60% from Rp50.

They are valuation scenarios rather than promised outcomes. Each depends on assumptions involving transaction growth, take rates, incentives, fintech earnings, regulatory costs and the multiple investors are willing to pay.

BRI Danareksa lowered its 2026 net-income estimate to Rp604 billion. Its forecasts rise to Rp861 billion in 2027 and Rp1.33 trillion in 2028, indicating that the positive investment case depends on continuing earnings expansion rather than the first-quarter profit alone.

First-Quarter Results Created the Bull Case

GoTo reported net income of Rp171 billion in the first quarter, reversing a Rp367 billion loss one year earlier.

The result was the company’s first quarterly net profit.

Net revenue increased 26% year on year to Rp5.3 trillion. Core gross transaction value rose 65% to approximately Rp138 trillion, while adjusted EBITDA increased 131% to Rp907 billion.

Adjusted free cash flow reached Rp1.3 trillion. GoTo maintained its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of Rp3.2 trillion to Rp3.4 trillion.

Fintech produced adjusted EBITDA of Rp364 billion as the outstanding loan book expanded 59% to Rp9.9 trillion.

On-demand services generated adjusted EBITDA of Rp439 billion. Delivery GTV increased 8%, but mobility GTV declined 3% to Rp5.7 trillion.

The segment mix matters. Financial services and delivery were already expanding more strongly than passenger mobility before the commission reduction took effect.

The Next Report Must Demonstrate Repeatability

The market will be looking for evidence that GoTo’s first profit was structural rather than temporary.

Net revenue must continue growing faster than operating costs. Adjusted EBITDA should remain on a trajectory consistent with the full-year target.

Cash flow will also matter. Positive free cash generation would strengthen the argument that profitability reflects improved operating economics rather than accounting adjustments.

Investors will examine transaction growth, user activity and monetisation across both fintech and on-demand services.

Rapid lending growth will receive particular scrutiny. A larger loan book can increase revenue, but only when credit quality and funding costs remain under control.

Guidance Could Move the Stock More Than the Reported Profit

Because the reporting period ended before the new commission regime began, historical results cannot fully answer the market’s main question.

Management’s comments about July trading, mobility margins and the 2026 outlook may carry more weight than the headline second-quarter profit.

A reaffirmation of the Rp3.2 trillion–Rp3.4 trillion adjusted EBITDA target would suggest the company believes cost efficiencies and other growth engines can absorb the policy change.

A reduction in guidance would indicate that the commission cut has materially changed the earnings path.

The market will also listen for information about pricing, driver incentives, social-protection obligations and whether GoTo expects passenger or driver behaviour to change under the new structure.

The Investment Case Is Attractive Because It Is Uncertain

At Rp50, GoTo offers substantial upside under most of the cited analyst targets. The same price also reflects unresolved risks.

The company must manage lower mobility commissions, competition, weak share liquidity and credit risk in its expanding fintech operation. It must continue investing in growth without returning to excessive cash consumption.

The earnings announcement will therefore test two competing narratives.

The first is that GoTo has completed its transition from growth at any cost to sustainable profitability.

The second is that its first profit arrived immediately before a regulation that may weaken one of its most established revenue streams.

A convincing result and clear post-regulation strategy could support the bullish consensus. Weak cash generation or reduced guidance would show why the stock has remained at Rp50 despite analysts’ optimistic targets.

Disclaimer: This article is intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Analyst ratings and target prices are not guarantees and do not constitute personalised investment advice or an invitation to buy or sell any security.