The share price of PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BBRI) finally turned positive, increasing by +1.61% to close at Rp 3,780 during Tuesday’s trading session (June 24, 2025).

BBRI shares were heavily traded, with 281.59 million shares changing hands in 48,129 transactions, amounting to a total trade value of Rp 1.07 trillion.

Although BBRI experienced a net foreign sell of Rp 365 billion, domestic investors stepped in and absorbed the stock. Mirae Asset Sekuritas recorded a local investor net buy of Rp 67.7 billion in BBRI shares.

Mandiri Sekuritas followed with a net buy of Rp 47.1 billion for local investors, and Maybank Sekuritas Indonesia also posted a local net buy of Rp 41.6 billion.

This positive close came after the stock had largely been in the red from June 11 to June 23, 2025, with only one day of stagnant movement during that period.

Over the past month, BBRI’s share price has dropped by 13.10%, alongside a substantial net foreign sell of Rp 1.88 trillion.

According to research from Verdhana Sekuritas, BBRI’s net profit declined by 16% to Rp 15 trillion as of April 2025. This was largely due to the absence of loan recoveries that had boosted earnings in the previous year.

In the same period in 2024, BBRI recorded loan recoveries totaling Rp 1.7 trillion, whereas in 2025, none were reported. When excluding this one-off factor, the actual decline in net profit is estimated to be only 7%.

“We observe that BBRI’s write-off trend has not decreased. As a result, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of net profit from 2024 to 2027 is projected at only 1%,” Verdhana stated in their research note, cited on Monday (June 2, 2025).

Stock Recommendation and Price Target

Looking ahead, Verdhana emphasized that BBRI needs to explore new credit segments to support future growth, especially since its current focus on the mass market segment has shown lackluster performance. This is evident from the low third-party fund (TPF) growth in the mass market, ranging between just 2% and 4%, with credit growth in the segment staying below 10%.

Following the release of the April 2025 financial results, Verdhana noted that BBRI has not yet been able to outperform its competitors. This is largely due to the slowdown in mass market loan growth, which could also lead to higher credit costs.

Despite this, Verdhana continues to maintain a buy recommendation on BBRI shares, with a price target of Rp 5,000. This target is based on DuPont analysis and reflects a projected 2025 PBV of 2.3x and PER of 12.5x.

Nevertheless, Verdhana also warns of potential risks that could impact BBRI’s performance, including a deteriorating macroeconomic outlook in Indonesia, changes in regulatory policies, and tightening liquidity conditions. These factors could drive up funding costs, degrade credit quality, increase credit expenses, and inflate operational costs.

Additionally, Verdhana noted that potential management changes at BBRI could result in shifts to write-off policies, which may significantly affect credit cost structures and ultimately impact the bank’s profitability.