DIGIVESTASI - Stock market movements this week were influenced by sentiments surrounding the developments of the new Prabowo-Gibran administration, dynamics in energy commodity prices, and the release of U.S. economic data. The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) reported that several stock market indicators experienced declines during the period of October 21-25, 2024, compared to the previous week, including the composite stock price index (IHSG), market capitalization, and foreign capital flows.

Throughout the week, the IHSG fell by 0.84% from 7,760.06 on October 18, 2024, to 7,694.66 at the close on Friday (October 25, 2024), although it briefly reached a high of 7,788.98 on Tuesday (October 22, 2024). This drop in the IHSG was accompanied by foreign investor selling, with a net sell of IDR 3.62 trillion, a reversal from the net buy position of IDR 1.21 trillion the previous week.

Market capitalization also shrank by 0.61%, from IDR 12,967 trillion to IDR 12,888 trillion. However, IDX Corporate Secretary Kautsar Primadi Nurahmad noted an increase in the average daily transaction volume, which rose by 16.96% to 27.31 billion shares, and the average daily transaction value, which increased by 9.49% to IDR 11.96 trillion. Daily transaction frequency also grew by 9.04% to 1.372 million trades.

Positive sentiment was also seen in Bakrie Group-affiliated stocks, such as BRMS, BUMI, and DEWA, which saw gains driven by optimism surrounding the Prabowo-Gibran administration. Shares of PT Solusi Sinergi Digital Tbk. (WIFI) also surged after establishing a business partnership with an entity owned by Hashim Djojohadikusumo.

Senior Market Analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas, Nafan Aji Gusta, noted that the market welcomed the smooth government transition, as it is seen as maintaining political stability, particularly regarding the appointment of economic ministers. Investor optimism was also driven by expectations of monetary policy easing by the Fed. Mirae Asset projected that the IHSG would reach 7,915 by the end of the year, an increase from the previous target of 7,585.

Several sectors expected to benefit from Prabowo-Gibran's vision include infrastructure, energy, and the consumer sector, particularly regarding the free nutritious meal program. Analysts from J.P. Morgan highlighted potential policy reforms and new stimulus that may be announced within the first 100 days of Prabowo’s administration, such as corporate tax cuts, pension fund reforms, and housing programs.

Analysts from Macquarie Sekuritas Indonesia, Ari Jahja and Akshay Sugandi, pointed out the health budget allocation by Prabowo's administration, aimed at improving healthcare service efficiency. Stocks like PT Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk. (MIKA) and PT Medikaloka Hermina Tbk. (HEAL) are favored in this sector. Additionally, consumer stocks such as PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk. (ICBP) and PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk. (CMRY) are expected to benefit from the free nutritious meal program (MBG) with an allocated budget of IDR 71 trillion.

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