Bitcoin Welcomes August 2025: Healthy Consolidation or Breakout to a New All-Time High?

As August 2025 begins, Bitcoin (BTC) stands at a critical price juncture. After recording an impressive rally throughout mid-July, BTC is now trading in the range of US$118,000 to US$119,000, approaching its all-time high. The market now awaits to see whether the largest cryptocurrency will continue its upward trajectory or face a correction amid external pressures.

Fundamental Support: ETF Inflows, Institutional Demand, and On-Chain Data

Market sentiment continues to be bolstered by strong institutional capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. In one trading session alone, inflows reached US$1.18 billion in a single day. Total ETF accumulation in 2025 has already surpassed US$51 billion.

The launch of strategic Bitcoin reserves by the U.S. government, along with adoption by states like Texas, has further legitimized BTC as a major macroeconomic asset.

Meanwhile, recent academic research reveals an increasing correlation between Bitcoin and major stock indices such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500—a sign that BTC is becoming more integrated into the global financial ecosystem.

Technical Signals: From Golden Crosses to AI Forecasts

Technical analysts have issued bullish projections for Bitcoin’s price action. TradingShot has identified a golden cross pattern on the 4-hour chart, which historically serves as a strong signal for continued rallies.

AI-driven predictive models also estimate potential price growth to the US$128,000–130,000 range, assuming BTC can hold above the critical psychological threshold of US$120,000. Platforms like Bitget and CoinCentral forecast Bitcoin’s price range in August to fluctuate between US$110,000 and US$135,000, with an average target between US$118,667 and US$130,000, depending on volume strength and ETF flows.

Tightening Regulations and Macro Pressures

Despite the promising short-term outlook, downside risks remain. Uncertainty surrounding regulations from the United States and the European Union, a slowdown in ETF inflows, and a negative correlation with global stock market corrections are all potential drivers of price declines.

BTC could correct to the US$112,000–115,000 range, and potentially fall further to around US$106,000 if major technical support levels are breached.

Robert Kiyosaki has also warned that even during a strong rally, the risk of a crash should not be ignored by investors.

Key Fundamental Factors to Monitor

Global monetary policies, inflation trends, and regulatory directions in the U.S.—including legislative developments such as the Genius Act and the CLARITY Act—will significantly influence Bitcoin’s medium-term trajectory.

Additionally, public financial institutions and large corporations continue to increase their BTC holdings as part of their treasury strategies, reinforcing the narrative that Bitcoin is evolving into a global reserve asset.
 

August as a Vital Test for Bitcoin

August 2025 marks a pivotal moment for the sustainability of Bitcoin’s rally. If institutional inflows, technical strength, and policy support remain intact, the potential to break through the US$130,000–140,000 level becomes increasingly likely.

However, market participants are advised to stay alert for short-term corrections triggered by external or technical factors.

Recommendations for Investors and Traders:

• Closely monitor support-resistance zones around US$110,000–120,000

• Track ETF inflow/outflow trends and key on-chain signals

• Stay informed on macroeconomic policy and digital asset regulations

With a data-driven approach and disciplined risk management, August could serve as a validation point—either signaling that Bitcoin is ready to enter a long-term supercycle, or indicating that the market is still seeking a stronger footing before its next rally.