Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Could Hit a New Record Above $126,000 by June 2025

A recent analysis suggests that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high exceeding $126,000 by June 2025, provided its historical patterns repeat.

In a post on X on Saturday (March 15, 2025), economist Timothy Peterson stated that Bitcoin is currently trading near the lower boundary of its historical seasonal range. His data indicates that most of Bitcoin’s annual gains typically occur in just two months—April and October. With this in mind, Bitcoin has approximately two and a half months to surpass its previous record of $109,000.

"It is highly possible that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high before June," he wrote.

Bitcoin Price Indicators and Trends

Over the years, Timothy Peterson has developed various Bitcoin price metrics, including the Lowest Price Forward indicator, which helps identify price levels that Bitcoin has never dropped below once surpassed.

For example, after rebounding from a multi-year low in March 2020, this indicator correctly predicted that since September 2020, Bitcoin would not fall below $10,000 again.

Currently, based on his analysis, Bitcoin is near the lower end of its seasonal fluctuation range. Historically, Bitcoin tends to stay below the trendline for an average of four months before experiencing a price surge.

Data shows that since 2023, Bitcoin has undergone five corrections of more than 20%, each followed by a stronger rally. This suggests that the current correction is not the end of the bull market but rather a temporary pullback.

Peterson also highlighted a red dashed trendline on his chart, pointing toward a $126,000 target by June 1, 2025. This aligns with explosive price increases following major corrections in previous bull markets.

"On average, Bitcoin remains below the trendline for about four months," he explained.

Bitcoin’s Growing Correlation with Traditional Stocks

Market observers have noted that Bitcoin is increasingly mirroring the movement of traditional financial assets, making it more susceptible to short-term fluctuations in the US stock market.

On March 11, 2025, Standard Chartered's Head of Digital Asset Research, Geoffrey Kendrick, pointed out that Bitcoin’s performance aligns closely with the Magnificent Seven stocks, which include Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla, particularly when adjusted for volatility.

According to Kendrick, Bitcoin's recent decline reflects broader market sentiment rather than pressures specific to the crypto industry.

Despite this, Bitcoin’s deflationary nature and its appeal as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty are expected to drive an independent upward trend by mid-year.

Meanwhile, some analysts remain optimistic that Bitcoin's recent drop to $76,000 is simply a normal correction within the ongoing bull cycle.

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital noted that since 2023, Bitcoin has seen five significant pullbacks, all followed by strong recoveries.

"You don’t need to look far back at past Bitcoin bull runs to understand that corrections are a natural part of the cycle," wrote Rekt Capital in an X analysis in early March.