Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Awaiting the FOMC Decision on September 17, 2025

Ahead of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for September 17, the Bitcoin market has entered a phase filled with both uncertainty and opportunity. BTC price movements are now being shaped by a combination of U.S. interest rate cut expectations, institutional strategies, and interconnected technical signals.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Trigger Limited “Risk-On” Sentiment

The latest U.S. labor data showed that only 22,000 jobs were added in August,  far below the 75,000 forecast. This development significantly increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut, with CME FedWatch registering expectations above 97%. While this raised a temporary “risk-on” sentiment in the crypto market, Bitcoin’s price reaction remained limited. BTC traded around US$111,800, briefly rallied, but quickly retraced, signaling that bullish momentum has yet to be fully confirmed.

Consolidation at Support Zones as Breakout Awaits Clarity

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is moving steadily between US$111,000 and US$112,000, with its RSI hovering near a neutral level at 48 and the MACD starting to indicate a potential positive crossover. Several analysts believe BTC is forming a consolidation phase with strong support in the US$105,000–110,000 range and resistance near US$114,000. A breakout above that resistance could open the door to a higher rally, especially if the FOMC delivers a clearer dovish signal.

Bullish Scenario Toward US$200,000

Long-term optimism continues to grow. Tom Lee, an analyst at Fundstrat, projects that Bitcoin could reach US$200,000 by the end of 2025 if the rate-cutting cycle begins with this FOMC meeting. This view is supported by the assumption that lower interest rates will channel more capital into risk assets such as crypto, increasing the likelihood of a major rally in the fourth quarter.

Volatility Risks Remain

Despite strengthening bullish expectations, uncertainty remains significant. VIX futures are showing higher premiums for October compared to September, signaling that markets anticipate potential turbulence after the FOMC decision. In other words, while the meeting may act as a positive catalyst, short-term volatility could rise sharply.

A Critical Juncture Ahead of the Fed Meeting

Currently, Bitcoin is trading within the US$110,000–114,000 range while awaiting clarity on U.S. monetary policy. The most optimistic scenario projects a rally toward US$120,000–200,000 in the final quarter of the year if the FOMC signals an aggressive rate cut accompanied by strong institutional inflows. Conversely, if sentiment remains cautious, the market may face a period of heightened volatility after the meeting, with Bitcoin’s price direction still uncertain.