DIGIVESTASI - Donald Trump’s second inauguration was met with optimism by investors who were encouraged by his pro-business agenda. They felt relieved as the previously feared aggressive implementation of protectionist trade policies now appears to be executed more cautiously. Trump’s ambitious agenda includes trade reform, immigration, tax cuts, and deregulation. While these policies could benefit major U.S. corporations, they also pose the risk of inflation, which could negatively impact stocks and bonds, and push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

In his inauguration speech, Trump reaffirmed his commitment to strengthening the oil, gas, and energy sectors, and imposing high tariffs. However, investors are still waiting for clarity on the implementation of these policies while adjusting their portfolios across various asset classes.

“Most of his policies will spur economic growth and corporate profits. However, there will be costs, including the potential rise in interest rates due to higher tariffs,” said Jack Ablin, Chief Investment Officer at Cresset Capital, as quoted by Reuters on Tuesday (January 21, 2025).

Trump chose not to immediately impose high tariffs as feared, triggering a rise in global stock markets. Instead, he issued a trade memo instructing federal agencies to reassess trade relations between the U.S., China, Canada, and Mexico.

Rick Meckler, a partner at Cherry Lane Investments, called Trump’s decision to delay tariffs a positive signal for the markets. "When he chooses to study and negotiate first, it’s a positive sign," he stated.

S&P 500 futures were up 0.4% on Monday afternoon, while the dollar weakened and the Mexican peso gained slightly. However, a more complete market reaction was expected on Tuesday, as U.S. stock markets were closed to commemorate Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

Previously, Trump had promised to impose global import tariffs of 10%-20% and 60% on goods from China. Investors saw the more measured approach taken on Monday as an indication that the large tariff threats may not materialize immediately.

“However, stating that the tariff threat is over is premature. Nonetheless, this first day was better than expected,” said Chris Turner, global market head at ING.

Deregulation Promise Drives Bank and Crypto Stock Gains

Trump’s promise to reduce regulations had a positive impact on rising bank stocks and a surge in cryptocurrency values. Wall Street CEOs stated that the Trump administration would likely support the business world and benefit the banking sector.

The crypto industry hopes Trump will fulfill his promise to be the "crypto president." Among the promises are creating a national bitcoin reserve, providing banking access to crypto companies, and forming a crypto council.

Trump also launched a branded cryptocurrency, which on Monday surged in value by over USD 8 billion. This move raised ethical questions among market observers.

After Trump’s speech, the price of bitcoin dropped from a record high of USD 107,000 to USD 104,000, as markets awaited more specific announcements regarding crypto policies. During his first term, the S&P 500 index recorded nearly a 68% increase, despite experiencing disruptions from the U.S.-China trade war.

Currently, investors remain cautious, waiting for further details on Trump’s economic policies. "The key question is how he will handle costs, inflation, and interest rates," said Josh Strange, President of Good Life Financial Advisors.

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