DIGIVESTASI - Former President Director of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), Hasan Zein Mahmud, commented on the significant decline in shares of PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk. (GOTO). He noted that the number of investors wanting to sell GOTO shares is increasing, while transaction volumes are decreasing. Hasan stated that if this trend continues, there is a possibility that GOTO shares will enter the special monitoring board or full call auction (FCA).

"If this trend continues, there is a possibility that this 'pride of many' share will be caged by the IDX in the Special Monitoring Board (SMB) prison," Hasan said on Wednesday (3/7/2024).

Hasan also highlighted several prominent shareholders of GOTO, including the conglomerate group Taobao China Holding owned by Alibaba and SVF GT Subco owned by Softbank, as well as the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA). Domestically, shareholders include the Indonesia Investment Authority (INA), PT Astra International Tbk. (ASII), and PT Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. (TLKM). Hasan mentioned that they might be categorized as Non-Certificate Public Shareholders.

Additionally, Hasan pointed out several notable individuals on GOTO’s management board, such as Agus Martowardojo and John A. Prasetio as commissioners, and Patrick Sugito Walujo as the president director, whom he described as "brilliant business visionaries."

"Is this a reputation gamble?" Hasan asked.

"As investors, the most relevant question is: 'Will GOTO be able to survive or vanish from circulation?' The answer is simple: only companies that can generate profits from reasonable operations can survive," Hasan explained.

According to him, fundamentally, GOTO is currently stronger, as the previously loss-making e-commerce segment has now turned into a net profit contributor. However, the Service on Demand (SOD) segment faces less intense competition than e-commerce and still has broad expansion opportunities.

"GOTO does not have as strong funding support as Grab, which is backed by the Sea Group, and its market capitalization is far below Grab, which is listed on NASDAQ. However, I see no reason why GOTO cannot compete in its domestic market. Indonesia is a very attractive field for SOD business in ASEAN," Hasan continued.

Hasan also attributed the decline in GOTO’s share price more to technical factors, such as the massive sale of shares by Taobao and GT Subco, as well as some Tokopedia founders selling their stakes. Without the presence of large buyers, it takes a long time to reach a balance between supply and demand.

As a strategic step, Hasan stated that he would buy 100 lots of GOTO shares every week if the price remains around IDR 50 or lower. He called this a stock-saving action.

"Test the accuracy of the prediction until the end of 2024. Profit? That’s a secondary matter," Hasan concluded.