Over the weekend, Bitcoin (BTC) saw a strong rally, rising from around US$112,200 to US$125,700, equivalent to roughly Rp2.11 billion (based on an exchange rate of US$1 = Rp16,850) on Sunday’s trading session. This surge marked a new all-time high (ATH) for the world’s leading cryptocurrency. The rally was driven by several positive macroeconomic developments and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which fueled investor sentiment.

During the past week, a narrative known as “Uptober” gained momentum across the crypto community. Historically, October tends to be a bullish month for digital assets, prompting many investors to allocate capital early in the month in hopes that this seasonal trend will once again hold true.

Macroeconomic Influence on Bitcoin

From a macroeconomic perspective, retail investors have increasingly believed that interest rate cuts are becoming more likely in the near future. This expectation has led investors to move aggressively into riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.

According to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s dot plot released in September, there remains potential for two rate cuts before the end of the year, with two FOMC meetings still scheduled.

Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown has also played a key role, as investors view it as a source of uncertainty that could impact future Federal Reserve policy decisions, given the delays in the release of key U.S. economic data.

This uncertainty has positioned Bitcoin as an alternative safe-haven asset, particularly as gold prices remain elevated. Many investors have turned to Bitcoin as a means to hedge against macroeconomic risks during October — a month that, historically, has brought positive performance to the crypto market.

Where Is Bitcoin Headed Next?

Given current conditions, Bitcoin still has potential for further gains throughout October. However, considering the sharp rally that has already occurred, a short-term correction is also likely — especially once the U.S. government resumes normal operations and market stability returns.

Nevertheless, investors should keep in mind the four-year Bitcoin cycle, which historically includes a phase of price correction. At present, Bitcoin is in a potentially high-risk zone, having risen for three consecutive years since November 2022.

Even so, there are other factors supporting the bullish trend — notably, the entry of major U.S. corporations and institutional players through Bitcoin ETFs, which have significantly strengthened market liquidity and confidence.

Michael Saylor Pauses Bitcoin Purchases

On his social media account, Michael Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy and one of Bitcoin’s most prominent advocates, announced that he would temporarily halt Bitcoin purchases for the coming week.

With an average purchase price of around US$74,000 per BTC, Saylor’s Bitcoin holdings have now generated a 67% profit, amounting to an estimated US$31.67 billion in unrealized gains.