Bitcoin is attempting to recover after its recent decline, but an analyst warns that the leading cryptocurrency may face a prolonged downturn through December. Mike McGlone, a senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, predicts that Bitcoin could fall back to around US$50,000, equivalent to about Rp830 million.

This outlook is driven by ongoing macroeconomic pressures. McGlone highlights that Bitcoin’s underperformance relative to gold is accelerating, indicating a structural shift toward defensive assets.

“With gold breaking record highs and absorbing capital flows as a safe-haven asset, Bitcoin’s weakening performance against the precious metal adds downward momentum. This increases the likelihood of prices revisiting the long-term pivot point at US$50,000 or Rp830 million, and potentially falling even further if current trends persist,” he explained, as cited by Finbold on Sunday, November 30, 2025.

A major concern is the low volatility in the stock market and broader risk rotation. McGlone notes that although equities appear calm, such stability often disguises deeper fragilities. Historically, the S&P 500 has tended to follow Bitcoin’s movement when the cryptocurrency dips below its 50-week moving average.

At present, both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 sit below their critical trend lines, signaling heightened risks across major asset classes. Historical patterns from the 2018 crash, the 2020 pandemic, and the 2022 bear market show equities eventually mirrored Bitcoin’s downturn.

This environment could once again pull stocks lower. Additional pressure comes from the “unlimited supply” of competing cryptocurrencies that continually eat into Bitcoin’s market share, weakening its dominance during periods of market stress.

Combined with mean-reversion tendencies and tightening liquidity, these conditions resemble previous deflationary phases in which Bitcoin experienced sharp retracements.

Currently, Bitcoin has recently broken through the US$90,000 resistance level—about Rp1.5 billion—which now serves as a vulnerable zone. As of the latest update, Bitcoin is trading at US$91.415 or Rp1.51 billion, rising nearly 1% in the last 24 hours and gaining 6% over the past week.

However, Bitcoin’s technical structure remains bearish. The 50-day moving average sits at US$103,001 (Rp1.7 billion) and the 200-day moving average at US$104,439 (Rp1.73 billion), placing the current price well below these key trend indicators.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 40.50—still in neutral territory but trending downward. Although not yet oversold, the RSI suggests demand is insufficient to counter the existing bearish setup.

McGlone warns investors that despite short-term gains, the risk of a deeper decline persists, particularly as the year-end approaches. He refers to this scenario as a “Christmas Grinch,” signaling that Bitcoin’s price could slide back to US$50,000 or about Rp830 million before the year ends if market pressure continues.