XRP Spot ETF Filings Await U.S. Regulatory Approval Amid Growing Market Speculation

Several applications for XRP-based spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) remain under review by U.S. regulators. However, rumors that approval could be granted at any moment have sparked intense speculation and debate across the cryptocurrency market. Both investors and analysts are now closely examining the potential short- and medium-term impacts on XRP’s price should the ETF receive official authorization.

According to a report by Yahoo Finance, the proposed ETF is viewed as a potential catalyst for large-scale institutional capital inflows into the XRP ecosystem.
If approved, analysts expect a significant surge in demand that could drive XRP’s price higher although the magnitude of the increase will depend on the size of inflows, spot market liquidity, and global macroeconomic conditions at the time of the announcement.

Current Market Conditions

• XRP Price: Ranges between US$2.60 and US$2.65 per token (based on real-time exchange data).

• Market Capitalization: Approximately US$155–158 billion.

• Circulating Supply: Around 60 billion XRP, depending on escrow releases and market activity.

Historical Impact of ETF Approvals on Crypto Prices

Academic studies and empirical data from Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs show that ETF approvals are typically followed by abnormal positive returns.
This pattern arises from increased institutional access, underlying asset purchases by ETF managers, and heightened retail sentiment driven by positive news momentum.

Price Projection and Simulation

Using a simplified model that assumes each ETF inflow directly increases XRP’s market capitalization, the estimated price can be calculated as:

New Price≈(Current Market Cap+Inflow)Circulating SupplyNew\ Price ≈ \frac{(Current\ Market\ Cap + Inflow)}{Circulating\ Supply}New Price≈Circulating Supply(Current Market Cap+Inflow)​

Based on a market cap of US$158 billion and a circulating supply of 60 billion XRP, the potential price outcomes are as follows:

This model highlights that inflow scale remains the primary determinant of price appreciation.
To double XRP’s price, a sustained tens-of-billions-dollar capital inflow would likely be required.

Key Factors Influencing Price Realization

Several variables could amplify or limit the potential price impact:

• Liquidity & Slippage: Large spot purchases may trigger temporary price spikes, whereas OTC execution could dampen immediate effects.

• ETF Mechanism: The creation/redemption process may obscure direct buying pressure in open markets.

• Profit-Taking by Early Holders: Some investors may sell into strength, offsetting net buying momentum.

• Macroeconomic Conditions: An approval during a bearish market cycle could yield a weaker reaction.

• Regulatory Framework: Technical constraints such as ETF ownership caps or purchase limits—may affect inflow efficiency. (Source: ScienceDirect)

Primary Risks for Investors

• Regulatory Uncertainty: The approval process remains under the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which may impose delays or additional conditions. A postponement could trigger sharp short-term corrections.

• High Volatility: Historical crypto patterns show that major news events often lead to extreme price swings with rapid surges frequently followed by steep pullbacks.

• Model Limitations: Projections based on pure net inflows fail to capture the complex behavior of real-world markets.

• Systemic Risks: Liquidity stress or exchange disruptions could quickly erase short-term gains.

If the XRP spot ETF receives regulatory approval, both theoretical foundations and historical data support the likelihood of a price increase driven by institutional inflows.
However, the magnitude of that rally will depend heavily on inflow volume, execution mechanisms, and broader market conditions. Based on the simple simulation model, an inflow of US$20 billion could raise XRP’s price from approximately US$2.6 to around US$3.0 per token. Nonetheless, achieving a multi-fold price surge would require much larger and sustained institutional capital inflows over time.