Indonesia is ranked as the fourth-largest rice producer in the world, according to the Food Outlook Biannual Report on Global Food Markets released by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) this June.

The report predicts that Indonesia's rice production for the 2025/2026 period could reach 35.6 million tons. India leads the chart with 146.6 million tons, followed by China with 143 million tons, and Bangladesh at third place with 40.7 million tons. Despite being in fourth place, Indonesia showed the highest growth in rice production, increasing by 4.5% from the previous period.

The Head of the National Food Agency (Bapanas), Arief, stated that rice production in Indonesia has experienced tremendous growth since January compared to the previous year. FAO recently recognized Indonesia as one of the world's top rice-producing countries. Arief also expressed his appreciation for all stakeholders involved in the national rice sector.

Arief reported that current rice stocks at Perum Bulog's warehouses have reached 4.2 million tons, of which 2.6 million tons come from domestic farmers' harvests absorbed by Bulog.

“On this occasion, I would also like to thank all rice millers across Indonesia. Their support has enabled Bulog to maintain a stock of 4.2 million tons of rice. The domestic absorption itself reached 2.6 million tons,” Arief stated.

However, Arief emphasized that the government will face some challenges in the second half of the year, particularly because the main harvest season ended in March and April. As a result, monthly rice production is expected to decline. Nevertheless, the government has prepared ample stocks of Government Rice Reserves (CBP).

“The toughest period typically occurs from November to January, so we must be ready with CBP stock, just as the government is currently doing. This shows we are on the right track,” Arief explained.

Arief also pointed out that the rice harvest in the next one to two months will not match the volume of the previous major harvest season. He predicted that if production declines, rice prices at the farmer level will begin to rise.

“In the upcoming 1–2 months, there won’t be another major harvest. The peak harvest in March and April produced around 10 million tons of rice. Out of that, 2.5–2.6 million tons have already been absorbed by Bulog, while the rest remains in the hands of rice mills, communities, and farmers. With the decline in production, paddy prices are expected to increase. That’s when the government should start utilizing Bulog’s rice stocks,” he continued.

According to the National Food Agency’s Price Panel, as of June 26, the average price of Dry Harvested Paddy (GKP) at the farmer level was Rp6,733 per kilogram, which is 3.58% higher than the Government Purchase Price (HPP) of Rp6,500 per kilogram. Compared to the previous month’s average of Rp6,621 per kg, the price increased by 1.69%.

To prepare for the second half of 2025, the government has already formulated a massive intervention strategy in the rice sector. This includes distributing rice assistance to 18,277,083 Beneficiary Families (KPM), and launching the Rice Supply and Price Stabilization Program (SPHP) in the market with a target distribution of up to 1.318 million tons by the end of the year.