DIGIVESTASI - Market participants are starting to predict the chances of victory for each candidate in the upcoming U.S. presidential election, with public support still uncertain.

According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted over six days until Monday (10/21), Democratic candidate and current U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead with 46% of the vote compared to 43% for former Republican President Donald Trump. This shows a slight change from last week when Harris led Trump by 45% to 42%.

However, in Polymarket polling, Trump shows a higher probability of victory, with a 60% chance. JP Morgan also noted that Trump’s prospects of winning are reflected in global hedge fund flows. "In general, hedge fund net inflows this year have correlated with rising odds of a Trump victory," said JP Morgan, as quoted by Reuters on Monday (10/21).

JP Morgan further stated that renewable energy stocks have seen a decline in recent weeks, in line with pro-Democratic policies promoting clean energy initiatives. On the other hand, hedge funds are increasingly buying cryptocurrency stocks, as Trump has shown support for digital currencies and recently launched his crypto venture, World Liberty Financial.

Strengthening Dollar  
According to Goldman Sachs analysts, a Trump victory could cause the euro to drop by as much as 10% from its current level. This is driven by potential broader tariffs and domestic tax cuts that are seen as favorable for the U.S. economy. Trump's aggressive economic policies are expected to impact major trading partners such as Europe and China.

"U.S. tariffs of 10% on all imports, along with a 20% surcharge on Chinese products, combined with tax cuts, could lead to a sharp strengthening of the U.S. dollar and an 8%-10% drop in the euro," said Michael Cahill, an analyst from Goldman Sachs.

Moreover, Trump’s aggressive policies are expected to increase inflation and push U.S. interest rates higher than those in Europe, which could further enhance the U.S. dollar's appeal.

Meanwhile, Kamala Harris has focused more on boosting consumer purchasing power. One of her proposed policies is an increase in the child tax credit from the current $2,000 to $3,600. According to Professor Natasha Sarin from Yale Law School, this policy is expected to provide long-term positive effects on the U.S. economy.

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