Global oil prices are expected to potentially continue rising when trading opens on Monday (March 15, 2026), as the conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran has entered its third week.

According to Reuters, the situation increases risks to energy infrastructure and keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed amid one of the largest supply disruptions in the world.

U.S. President Donald Trump has even threatened to launch further strikes against Iran’s oil export hub on Kharg Island. The threat was immediately responded to by Tehran, which stated it was ready to carry out retaliatory attacks.

The surge in tensions has driven Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices sharply higher and shaken global financial markets. Both contracts have risen more than 40% this month, reaching their highest levels since 2022.

The price increase came after U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran prompted Tehran to halt shipping activities through the Strait of Hormuz. The strategic route is a critical passage through which about one-fifth of global oil supply flows.

Trump has also urged several countries including China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom to deploy warships to secure the shipping route. This step is considered important to reopen global energy access that has been disrupted.

The U.S. military reportedly struck military targets on Kharg Island on Saturday. Iran later responded by launching drones targeting a major oil terminal in the United Arab Emirates.

Analysts at JP Morgan led by Natasha Kaneva said the event marks a new escalation in the conflict in the Middle East. According to them, oil infrastructure in the region had previously remained relatively untouched by direct attacks.

In addition to the Fujairah oil terminal in the United Arab Emirates, analysts also highlighted the Ras Tanura export terminal in Saudi Arabia and the Abqaiq oil processing facility as highly crucial and vulnerable energy points in the Gulf region. These three facilities play a significant role in maintaining global oil supply stability.

However, oil loading operations at the Fujairah terminal have reportedly resumed. The terminal, which is located outside the Strait of Hormuz, serves as an export route for about 1 million barrels per day of the UAE’s Murban crude, equivalent to roughly 1% of global oil demand.

Energy distribution disruptions are expected to significantly impact global oil supply. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that global oil supply could decline by around 8 million barrels per day in March due to shipping disruptions.

In addition, oil producers in the Middle East have reportedly cut production by at least 10 million barrels per day. This situation further tightens energy supply in the global market.

To ease the price surge, the IEA last week agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from the strategic reserves of its member countries. Japan even plans to start releasing its oil reserves on Monday this week.

Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts to ease the conflict remain at a deadlock. The Donald Trump administration has reportedly rejected several calls from Middle Eastern allies to begin negotiations.

Iran has also insisted that it will not consider a ceasefire while attacks from the United States and Israel continue. This stance further reduces the chances of the conflict ending in the near future.