United States President Donald Trump has announced a trade agreement imposing a 19% import tariff on Indonesian exports. Conversely, American exports to Indonesia will enjoy a 0% tariff or be completely exempt from import duties. So, what lies ahead for Indonesia's export performance? The Ministry of Trade has set a national export growth target of 7.10%, aiming for a total export value of US$294.45 billion in 2025. As of June 2025, Indonesia's exports were valued at US$23.44 billion, an 11.29% increase from US$21.06 billion in the same month of the previous year.

Cumulatively, exports in the first half of 2025 totaled US$135.41 billion, growing 7.7% from US$125.73 billion in H1 2024. Specifically, oil and gas exports reached US$7.03 billion, down 11.04% from US$7.9 billion. Meanwhile, non-oil and gas exports rose 8.96% from US$117.83 billion to US$128.39 billion.

Paramadina University economist Wijayanto Samirin predicted that Indonesia's export performance might slightly decline following Trump's tariff policy. He explained that higher prices due to tariffs would weaken U.S. demand for imported goods, affecting all exporters. He also noted that global uncertainty has led consumers and investors to delay transactions, further impacting Indonesia’s exports this year. However, Wijayanto sees the 19% tariff as a strategic opportunity since it is lower than the tariffs imposed on two of Indonesia's main competitors in the U.S. market—China and India. The rate is also on par with other competitors like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand.

He advised the government to ensure more Indonesian products fall under tariffs below 19%. Additionally, efforts must be made to diversify exports beyond the U.S., enhance product competitiveness and differentiation, and shield the domestic market from both legal and illegal imports. Separately, Andry Satrio Nugroho, Head of Industry, Trade, and Investment at INDEF, stated that China remains Indonesia’s main export destination. In the first half of 2025, exports to China totaled US$29.31 billion—making it the top export market, despite also being the country with the largest trade deficit with Indonesia during the January–June 2025 period.

According to Andry, there is no need to be overly concerned, as China remains a major player for Indonesia’s export growth. He suggested that the government shift its export focus to countries outside the U.S. to maintain growth. The actual impact of Trump’s tariffs may only become evident in the coming months, such as September or October. Andry added that ASEAN countries are subjected to similar tariff rates as Indonesia, so the burden will likely fall more on U.S. consumers than on exporters. He emphasized the need to diversify Indonesia’s export markets, including expanding into Europe, due to unpredictable policy shifts from the Trump administration. Relying too much on the U.S. market could limit Indonesia’s export gains.

He urged the government to explore the European Union more actively by boosting trade missions and improving trade facilities. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Trade reported that it continues to monitor the trade surplus between Indonesia and the U.S. after the 19% reciprocal tariff was announced. Minister of Trade Budi Santoso confirmed that the U.S. remained the top contributor to Indonesia’s trade surplus in the first half of 2025, amounting to US$9.92 billion. This shows that Indonesian products remain competitive, even before the reciprocal tariffs are implemented.

Budi affirmed the government will closely monitor and strive to sustain export growth once the new tariffs are in effect. Apart from the U.S., Indonesia also posted trade surpluses with India (US$6.64 billion), the Philippines (US$4.36 billion), Malaysia (US$3.07 billion), and Vietnam (US$2.21 billion). Regionally, ASEAN contributed a US$9.59 billion surplus, followed by the European Union (US$3.79 billion) and the EAEU (US$0.007 billion) in the first half of 2025.