Global gold prices have not shown a significant surge despite the escalating conflict between the United States (US) and Israel against Iran in recent weeks. Earlier, on February 28, a joint attack by the US and Israel on Tehran killed Ayatollah Khamenei, prompting Iran to retaliate by launching missiles at American military bases in the Arab region and closing the Strait of Hormuz.

According to CNBC International, historically precious metals tend to strengthen during geopolitical tensions because investors consider them a safe haven asset. After the US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, gold prices briefly rose from US$5,296 to US$5,423 per troy ounce, but the increase did not last long.

A wave of selling pressure then pushed prices down by more than 6% to US$5,085 on March 3. In recent days, gold prices have moved relatively steadily within the range of US$5,050 to US$5,200 per troy ounce, with the latest price around US$5,175 per troy ounce.

Ross Norman, CEO of the precious metals analysis website Metals Daily, said that the stagnation in gold prices is influenced by several factors, including the strengthening of the US dollar and rising yields on US government bonds. He noted that the increase in oil prices due to the conflict could also prolong inflation and encourage central banks to maintain high interest rates.

This situation could occur if critical global energy routes such as the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted by the ongoing conflict. High interest rates generally make investors more interested in yield-generating assets such as government bonds rather than precious metals that do not produce interest.

“The movement of gold and silver prices currently appears somewhat subdued, but that may be understandable after the significant surge seen over the past few months,” Norman said on Monday (March 16, 2026).

He also added that some institutional investors have begun to act more cautiously in holding gold due to the relatively high price volatility seen recently.

Amer Halawi, head of research at the investment firm Al Ramz, said that geopolitical conflicts often trigger large-scale selling at the beginning. According to him, when liquidity pressure emerges in the market, investors tend to sell various assets first before returning to assets considered safe.

“If a liquidity crisis occurs, almost all assets will be sold until market participants can understand the situation and refocus their investments on the appropriate assets,” he said during the program “Access Middle East.”

He added that this phenomenon often appears in the early stages of a crisis and is considered a traditional market pattern.

“Traditionally, when markets experience shocks, even gold may be sold initially before eventually strengthening again,” he said.

Although gold prices appear relatively flat in the short term, several global investment banks remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for the precious metal. Investment bank JPMorgan Chase predicts that gold prices could reach US$6,300 per troy ounce by the end of 2026.

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank maintains its forecast of US$6,000 per troy ounce by the end of the year in its latest research report. Analysts believe that global geopolitical uncertainty, persistently high inflation, and tensions in the Middle East could continue to support demand for gold as a long-term hedge asset.