DIGIVESTASI - Some newly listed shares, such as those of Salim Group's Prajogo Pangestau, have hit all-time highs. Analysts warn investors to be wary of rising share prices. Robertus Hardy, Head of Research at Mille Asset Securitas Indonesia, said investors should be wary of new stocks that have reached all-time highs (ATH).

According to him, if the share price rises quickly, it could fall faster too. "Don't be late to the party. This increase may be coming to an end. So if you want to come to the party, come early and leave early," Robertus said at Mirae Asset Media Day in Jakarta, Thursday (December 14, 2023). He further said, "Mirai Asset Securitas is confident in blue chip B shares. ASII, TLKM, EXCL and AKRA are improving their profitability, but their stock valuations are declining."

Business records show that several listed stocks this year reached all-time highs. For example, some shares of issuers owned by Prajogo Pangestu, such as PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk (CUAN) reached an ATH of Rp 11,350 and PT Barito Renewables Energy Tbk (BREN) raised its ATH to Rp 8,050. Other Prajogo Panguest stocks that rose at ATH were PT Chandra Asri Petrochemicals Tbk (TPIA), which rose to Rp 4,780, and PT Barito Pacific Tbk (BRPT), which rose to Rp1,755. to the ATH level.

In addition to the shares owned by Prajogo Pangestos, shares owned by the well-known Salim Group, Medco, Agus Projosasmit PT Amman Minerals International Tbk (AMMN) strengthened rapidly with ATH reaching the level of Rp 7,775. Another issuer involved in ATH is PT Pelita Teknologi Global Tbk (CHIP) with an ATH level of Rp 2,820. In addition to these stocks, several large bank stocks were also listed at ATH this year.

The share price of PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBRI) broke through the ATH of Rp 5,700, PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) rose to the ATH level of Rp 9,400, PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk (BMRI), rose to Rp 6,125 at the ATH level. Mr. Robertus said that banking stocks have now begun to consolidate from the ATH position and are now back down. However, as interest rates fall, lending may increase. "If interest rates remain high for a long time, lending may be hampered. But on the other hand, NIM will continue to rise," he said.

Loan growth may pick up again in the second half of 2024 as interest rates decline, Robertus said. With these conditions, Mirae Securitas is optimistic that there is still room for an increase in the share prices of bank issuers next year. Furthermore, when BREN, CUAN, and AMMN reached their highest level since IPO (ATH) this year, rising by several thousand percent, the JCI price was allegedly an anomaly.

Samuel Securities macro strategist Lionel Priyadi, Wednesday (13/12/2023), said that the JCI recorded a year-to-date increase of 3.3% to 7,075, while the LQ45 index and IDX80 index moved negatively. 0.0.5% and -1.5% respectively since the beginning of the year. According to him, this phenomenon shows that there is an imbalance in the movement between blue chip stocks and large IPO stocks (CUAN up 4,042.3% year-to-date, BREN up 676.9% year-to-date, AMMN up 306% year-to-date -to-date. -to date) It says there is. the beginning of the year.

This raises concerns about the JCI fundamentals among foreign investors. "The BREN, CUAN and AMMN phenomena could have an impact on stopping the JCI movement  because foreign investors feel uncomfortable with the gap between LQ45 and IHSG," said Lionel, Thursday (14/12) to Bisnis. Based on IDX data, foreign investors recorded a net turnover of IDR 819.17 billion on Wednesday (13 December 2023). Meanwhile, a foreign investor sales campaign worth IDR 16.7 trillion was recorded in 2023. Meanwhile, the US Central Bank (Federal Reserve/FRB) at the December 2023 FOMC meeting, Thursday (14/12) early morning WIB, announced that it had cut interest rates in range 5.25% to 5.5%.

Many market players also expect the Fed's interest rates to fall in 2024. Lionel's comments follow the release of below-consensus US PPI inflation data and the release of FOMC forecasts in December, which increased expectations that the Fed would lower interest rates from 50 basis points in September 2023 to 75 basis points in 2024.

He said a speculative euphoria had gripped global markets. "The market expects the Fed's interest rate  to fall 150 basis points to 4.5% in 2024, with the potential to turn dovish  in the first quarter of 2024 or March 2024," concluded Lionel. MNC Securitas analyst Herditya Wikasana estimates that  the Fed will cut interest rates by $3 in 2024 by 75 basis points, which is a positive catalyst for issuers in the banking, technology and real estate sectors, and is likely to happen.

Apart from interest rates, investors tend to pay close attention to China's economic trends, where growth tends to be stagnant and there are concerns that this will have an impact on the global economy, Herditia told Bisnis. Even though the JCI condition was not normal, MNC Securities still recommended Prajogo Pangestu shares and the share price reached an all-time high.

IHSG 2024

Apart from that, analysts' expectations of a reduction in the Fed's interest rate in 2024 also support their view of the JCI interest rate. Mandiri Securitas is optimistic that the JCI can reach a level of up to 8,400 people in 2024. Bina Chahyadi, Head of Sales at Mandiri Investasi, said that the Fed plans to gradually reduce interest rates at least three times by the end of 2024, which has the potential to push the IHSG up. "Next year we estimate that the JCI  could reach the range of 8,000-8,400. This means the potential is still very large," said Bina in Jakarta, Thursday (14/12/2023), at the Mandiri Securities Tower.

He said, apart from expectations for IHSG growth, investors must also pay attention to the growth of issuers listed on the stock exchange. So far, he estimates that the profitability of IHSG member companies could grow by an average of 8% in 2024. "Well, if for example earnings (PE) and stock market valuations do not change, that's okay," he said, "If share prices are flat, next year the JCI should rise 8%.”

Bina said that another factor supporting the JCI is the mood ahead of the 2024 elections. This is because the simultaneous elections are expected to increase the budget by up to IDR 76 trillion and campaign funds contribute 0.8% to the additional gross domestic product (GDP) of the Republic of Indonesia. Mandiri Securities also recommends the LQ45 index component which will drive the JCI next year.

According to Bina, the sectors that can benefit in 2024 are the cyclical and non-cyclical consumer sectors. Banks, real estate and infrastructure will also be sectors that will benefit from the Fed's interest rate cuts. However, Mandiri Securities continues to maintain a neutral position in the health sector because it is expected to continue to grow even though the COVID-19 pandemic slows down. On the other hand, energy is a sector that could weaken due to the global economic slowdown due to low commodity prices and a decline in exports.

"We estimate that raw material prices will also fall due to weak supply and demand. So, just like the energy sector and the materials sector, we don't like it. Well,  at the moment we don't see profitability.", I still don't like the technology sector, he concluded.