Bitcoin Dominance Strengthens in the First Half of 2025; Altseason Remains Uncertain

In the first half of 2025, the cryptocurrency market was once again dominated by Bitcoin (BTC), while altcoins lagged behind. Bitcoin dominance was recorded at 64.98% in early May, the highest level since 2021, raising questions among investors whether an altcoin season—or altseason—is still forthcoming, or if it has become a thing of the past.

Altcoin Season Index Indicator Has Yet to Strengthen

The Altcoin Season Index, which measures the percentage of altcoins outperforming Bitcoin over the last 90 days, stood at 43 on February 10, 2025. This figure is well below the 75 threshold that signals the start of altseason. This condition indicates that the market remains dominated by Bitcoin, with altcoins yet to show significant performance.

Factors Delaying Altseason

Several main factors causing the delay in altseason include:

• Strong Bitcoin Dominance: Bitcoin continues to control the crypto market with a large market capitalization and high liquidity, making it the primary choice for investors compared to altcoins, which tend to be more volatile.
   

• Regulatory Uncertainty: The unclear regulatory environment for crypto assets, especially in the United States, discourages investors from taking risks on altcoins. The lack of regulatory guidance also hinders the development of altcoin projects.
   

• Lagging Ethereum Performance: Ethereum (ETH), which usually leads the altcoin sector in previous cycles, is currently outperformed by some competitors such as Solana (SOL). This situation encourages investors to delay investing in other altcoins.

Is Altseason Still Possible?

Although current market conditions do not indicate the arrival of altseason, some analysts remain optimistic. They argue that altseason could emerge once Bitcoin’s dominance peaks and starts to decline, consistent with previous cycles.

However, skeptical views also exist. Some experts believe that altseason may no longer return, considering the growing fundamental gap between Bitcoin and altcoins. Bitcoin is regarded as a more stable store of value, while altcoins face significant challenges in attracting institutional investors.

With Bitcoin’s dominance still high and various other obstacles, altseason appears to be delayed. While there is hope that altseason could happen when Bitcoin’s dominance weakens, investors are advised to remain realistic and aware of possible shifts in the crypto market cycle. Monitoring indicators such as the Altcoin Season Index and Bitcoin dominance is key to making informed decisions in this dynamic crypto market.