In its October 2026 World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. It also expects global inflation of 4.7% in 2026, easing to 4.1% in 2027. The projections use information available through October 1, 2026.

The IMF identifies risks that could shift the outlook, including conflict, trade tensions, a repricing of artificial-intelligence investment, and fiscal vulnerabilities. These figures are projections, not guarantees. Countries may differ depending on energy prices, trade, policy, and domestic demand.

What could it mean for households and investors?

Slower global activity may affect export demand, commodity prices, capital flows, and exchange rates. The impact on Indonesia is not uniform across sectors. Households can monitor essential prices, borrowing costs, and job opportunities; investors can assess portfolio risks and avoid decisions based on a single scenario.

Check updated data and IMF assumptions, and compare them with Bank Indonesia and Statistics Indonesia releases. Global inflation is not a direct forecast of Indonesian prices. Domestic policy, exchange rates, subsidies, and local supply also affect consumer costs.

Source: IMF, October 2026 World Economic Outlook.