Indonesia’s domestic financial market closed last week with mixed performance. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) achieved a historic all-time closing high of 8,051.12 on Friday (September 19, 2025).

On the other hand, the rupiah weakened to its lowest level in four months, highlighting that investor optimism in equities did not fully spill over into the foreign exchange market.

Looking ahead, Indonesia’s financial market is expected to remain in positive territory this week. A full overview of market sentiment can be found on page 3 of this article.

On the last trading day of the week, Friday (September 19, 2025), the JCI gained 0.53% or 42.69 points, with massive trading value reaching Rp69.48 trillion.

Primary consumer, energy, and healthcare sectors led the rally, supported by strong gains in primary consumer (+2.04%), energy (+1.98%), and healthcare (+0.9%).

Mining stocks such as Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA) and Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS) surged significantly, contributing dozens of index points. The massive trading value of Rp69.48 trillion reflected robust liquidity inflows into the stock market.

For the week, the JCI advanced 2.51%, confirming the dominance of positive sentiment driving capital flows into risk assets.

In contrast, the foreign exchange market painted a weaker picture. The rupiah depreciated 0.52% to Rp16,585 per US dollar at last week’s close, extending the prior day’s losses. This marked its weakest level since May 2025.

The pressure on the rupiah stemmed from a stronger US dollar following the Fed’s cautious stance and foreign capital outflows triggered by domestic political instability.

In the bond market, the 10-year government bond (SBN) yield climbed to 6.34% from 6.31% the day before, signaling a decline in bond prices as investors sold off.

Meanwhile, US equities rallied on Friday as investors welcomed the Federal Reserve’s rate cut decision, with Wall Street hitting fresh all-time highs.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 172.85 points or 0.37% to 46,315.27, setting a new record high. The S&P 500 rose 0.49% to 6,664.36, and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.72% to 22,631.48.

The Russell 2000, representing small-cap stocks, fell 0.7%, paring some gains after touching a record high earlier in the session.

Apple led the charge with a 3.2% gain following the global launch of its latest iPhone. Tesla also advanced more than 2.2%.

The market rally came after the Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, marking its first cut since December. Although widely expected, stocks fluctuated briefly after Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the move as a “risk management-based cut.”

Mark Hackett, Chief Investment Strategist at Nationwide, noted that although September is historically associated with corrections, this year markets defied the pattern, rallying 35% since March on strong technical and fundamental support.

Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA Research, emphasized that markets are seeking support for economic growth and justification for elevated valuations. “The prospect of lower interest rates helps,” he said.

The JCI’s record close underscored strong investor sentiment toward Indonesian equities. However, this week the market may enter a more fragile phase, with limited domestic drivers shifting investor focus toward external factors.

China’s central bank (PBoC) policy decisions and US inflation data are expected to serve as key anchors for both the JCI’s trajectory and rupiah stability.

Key Market Drivers and Events This Week:

1. APBN KiTa Press Conference
   Today, Monday (September 22, 2025), Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa will hold the September 2025 edition of the APBN KiTa press conference, presenting government spending, revenue, and fiscal deficit figures for January–August 2025. This will be Purbaya’s first APBN KiTa conference since replacing Sri Mulyani.

2. Indonesia’s Money Supply (M2) Data – August 2025
   On Tuesday (September 23, 2025), Bank Indonesia will release July 2025 M2 data. Broad money supply (M2) grew 6.5% YoY, up from 6.4% in June, totaling Rp9,569.7 trillion. Growth was supported by narrow money (M1) +8.7% and quasi-money +4.8%.

3. China Loan Prime Rate (LPR) Decision
   The PBoC is set to announce September 2025 LPR, with consensus expecting rates to remain unchanged at 3.00% (1-year) and 3.50% (5-year). This reflects the central bank’s dilemma between stimulating a slowing economy and maintaining yuan stability.

4. US PMI Data – September 2025
   The US will publish S&P Global PMI readings for manufacturing and services. August data showed slower services activity (54.5) but manufacturing jumped to its strongest since May 2022 (53.0).

5. US PCE Inflation – August 2025
   On Friday (September 26, 2025), the US will release PCE inflation. July readings were 2.6% YoY (0.2% MoM), with core PCE at 2.9% YoY. The Fed uses core PCE as its primary inflation gauge.

6. Fed Speeches: Jerome Powell & Michelle Bowman
   Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on Tuesday (September 23, 2025) at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce 2025 Economic Outlook. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will also deliver remarks at the 134th Kentucky Bankers Association convention.

Additional Domestic Agendas Today:

• APBN KiTa press conference.

• Agricultural downstreaming coordination meeting.

• Halal Indonesia International Industry Expo 2025 press briefing.

• LPS (Indonesia Deposit Insurance) press conference on guarantee interest rates.

• Tender Offer MMEN.

• Public Expose: BCIC and FOOD.

Latest Indonesian Economic Indicators

• GDP Growth (Q2 2025 YoY): 5.12%

• Inflation (Aug 2025 YoY): 2.31%

• BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate (Sept 2025): 4.75%

• Fiscal Deficit (June 2025): 0.81% of GDP

• Current Account Deficit (Q2 2025 YoY): 0.8% of GDP

• Balance of Payments Deficit (Q2 2025 YoY): US$6.7 billion

• Foreign Reserves (Aug 2025): US$150.7 billion