October inflation was expected to ease, but figures available before the official release were still estimates. Bank Mandiri Chief Economist Andry Asmoro projected monthly inflation of 0.19% and annual inflation of 3.19%, below September’s reported 0.30% and 3.28%, respectively. BCA’s estimates differed, at 0.14% month on month and 3.14% year on year.

For volatile food, Mandiri expected monthly inflation to slow to 0.80% from 1.46% in September. The report linked softer pressure to a smaller contribution from chili prices, while chicken meat and eggs were expected to post deflation. Food-price movements vary by region and product, so this group-level estimate does not describe every household’s experience uniformly.

Underlying price pressure was also projected to remain contained. Mandiri forecast core inflation at 0.08% month on month and 2.52% year on year, and said jewelry gold prices contributed 0.03 percentage points of deflation. BCA estimated core inflation at 0.04% monthly and 2.47% annually. The Mandiri Spending Index cited in the report contracted 0.1% month on month, adding context on household spending.

The gap between Mandiri’s and BCA’s estimates is a reminder that forecasts are not final figures. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) was scheduled to announce the official data at noon on November 2. Comparing that release with the estimates will help show whether easing was broad-based or concentrated in particular components.

Source: Bisnis.com, Surya Dua Artha Simanjuntak, November 1, 2026. These are analyst forecasts reported by the outlet, not official BPS results.