Indonesia’s September trade surplus was expected to narrow from the previous month as imports were forecast to grow faster than exports. Bank Mandiri’s estimate, cited by Bisnis.com, put the surplus at US$2.25 billion, compared with US$3.55 billion in August. This remains an analyst estimate, not an official result.

Under the same forecast, September exports would reach US$27.3 billion, up 2.5% month on month and 10.6% year on year. Imports were projected at US$25 billion, rising 8.6% from August and 22.3% from a year earlier. If those estimates are close to the eventual figures, faster import growth would narrow the gap between export and import values.

Bank Mandiri linked some pressure on oil and gas imports to a roughly 15.8% monthly rise in Brent prices. BCA offered a lower surplus estimate of US$1.52 billion, showing that analysts’ views still span a wide range. The divergence highlights how forecasts depend on assumptions about prices, volumes and trade composition.

Statistics Indonesia (BPS) was scheduled to publish official data on November 2. The actual outcome may therefore differ from forecasts. For investors and businesses, the trade balance offers clues about import demand, export performance and trade’s potential contribution to the economy, but one month of data cannot establish a long-term direction.

Source: Bisnis.com, Surya Dua Artha Simanjuntak, November 1, 2026. The figures are forecasts attributed to Bank Mandiri and BCA; official data was pending the BPS release.