DIGIVESTASI - The performance of PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) is planned to be released next year. One of them is supported by the price of gold, which is expected to continue its upward trend in 2024. Incidentally, ANTM's sales until the third quarter of 2023 were mainly supported by gold products. Sales of gold products reached Rp 19.29 trillion.

The gold included nickel ore worth Rp 9.78 trillion, ferronickel worth Rp 3.3 trillion, alumina worth Rp 948.28 billion, bauxite ore worth Rp 305.68 billion, and silver Rp 80.80 billion. Due to this success, ANTM recorded a profit of Rp 2.84 trillion attributable to owners of the parent entity in the current period. This revenue increased by 8.44% compared to Rp 2.62 trillion in the same period last year.

However, the increase in revenue was inversely proportional to ANTM's revenue which decreased by 8.26% in Q3 2023. ANTM recorded revenue of IDR 30.89 trillion compared to IDR 33.68 trillion previously. NH Korindo analyst Axel Ebenhaeser said gold prices will most likely be high next year. This is in line with optimism about US economic data and the Fed's increasingly dovish policy. As a result, this situation has led to increased demand for gold.

Axel also emphasized the possibility of continued global economic uncertainty, including ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe as well as rising tensions between China and the United States. This will be a major factor driving demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.

"These two main sentiments have pushed gold prices up by more than 10% in 2023, reflected in the increase in the average selling price (ASP) of ANTM gold by around 6% year-on-year," Axel wrote in his research quoted on Thursday (December). August 21, 2023). He continued: "We expect gold's bullish momentum to continue until 2024 and become a positive catalyst for ANTM." Axel also noted that ANTM's nickel ore ASP will decline until Q3 2023.

World market prices for nickel ore and nickel products are expected to drop significantly in 2023. The main cause of the decline in nickel and nickel ore prices is the persistent oversupply in the global market, which is a direct result of the Indonesian government's efforts to downstream the nickel supply chain. Therefore, Axel believes that the bullish momentum of gold is expected to continue until 2024 and will be a positive catalyst for ANTM. For this reason, he recommends a target purchase price of IDR2,050.

"Potential risks next year (for ANTM) include changes in government nickel policy, a more hawkish Fed policy, and a continued decline in nickel prices," he continued.

ANTAM's Confidence and Strategy

Meanwhile, ANTM has developed a number of strategies to improve its underlying performance. President Director of Aneka Tambang Niko Kanter explained that ANTM will maximize domestic sales and cost leadership as commodity prices such as gold, nickel, and bauxite continue to fluctuate. "Gold demand will increase as prices fall, while the nickel and bauxite markets will experience oversupply," he said in a public expose on Thursday (November 30, 2023). "We are focused on strategy."

As Antam's gold producer, the member of SOE Holding MIND ID expects gold demand to increase, especially in the domestic market as it is influenced by interest rate policies. ANTM believes investors will continue to look at gold as a safe haven asset amid global uncertainty. Kanter added that one of the major projects, the ferronickel plant in East Halmahera, has entered the early stages of operation.

The plant will be able to produce 13,500 tons of nickel per year in ferronickel form. Once fully operational, the Hartim ferronickel plant will have a capacity of 27,000 TNi to support the ferronickel production of the Kolakafe ferronickel plant in Southeast Sulawesi. Therefore, ANTM has an installed ferronickel production capacity of 40,500 TNi.

In 2023, ANTM will also focus on green energy development efforts to support the government's goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2060. ANTM always uses environmentally friendly energy sources in its business operations. In line with this commitment, ANTAM is working with strategic partners to develop an integrated electric vehicle (EV) ecosystem in Indonesia. Meanwhile, ANTM is pursuing several mega projects, including integrated upstream to downstream projects that require investment funds of up to $6 billion, in addition to infrastructure equipment such as power plant supply.

In addition, in the downstream development of bauxite raw materials, ANTAM is also currently focusing on building a smelter grade alumina refinery (SGAR) plant in Mempawa, West Kalimantan. This project is developed together with PT Indonesia Asahan Aluminum, which has a processing capacity of up to 1 million tons of SGAR per year.