Indonesia’s stock market remains under heavy pressure at the start of the week. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) fell by more than 4% during the first morning trading session and briefly touched its lowest level around 7,904.
Senior Market Analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas, Nafan Aji Gusta, said investors are currently awaiting the outcome of a scheduled meeting between the Financial Services Authority (OJK), the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), and MSCI on February 2, 2026.

This agenda has become a key driver of today’s JCI sentiment, particularly discussions surrounding free float regulations.
Nafan noted that regulators have announced plans to adjust the minimum free float requirement from 7.5% to 15%, which is targeted to take effect starting February 2026.

A similar view was expressed by MNC Sekuritas Head of Retail Research, Herditya Wicaksana, who warned that the JCI remains vulnerable to further downside.
He explained that the market is largely adopting a wait-and-see stance ahead of clarification between the IDX and MSCI regarding free float data transparency. Meanwhile, index performance is also weighed down by declines in conglomerate stocks and gold-related shares amid a correction in global gold prices.

From a technical perspective, Herditya projected that in a worst-case scenario, the JCI could retreat toward the 7,000 level.
Separately, currency analyst at Doo Financial Futures, Lukman Leong, stated that achieving a 15% free float in the near term would be challenging, keeping negative sentiment intact. He added that concerns over a potential downgrade to frontier market status by MSCI, along with an underweight stance from Goldman Sachs, continue to open room for the JCI to slide toward the 7,000 range.