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MSCI Turmoil: Foreign Investors Pull Out Rp12.5 Trillion, Indonesia Default Risk Rises
Saham News - Posted on 02 February 2026 Reading time 5 minutes
Foreign investors resumed net selling in Indonesia’s financial markets throughout last week, amid heightened market volatility following MSCI’s decision to freeze index changes for Indonesia. Based on Bank Indonesia (BI) data for the trading period of January 26–29, 2026, foreign investors recorded net sales of Rp12.55 trillion.
The largest outflows came from the equity market, which posted net selling of Rp12.40 trillion, followed by the government bond (SBN) market with net sales of Rp2.77 trillion. In contrast, foreign investors still registered net purchases of Rp2.61 trillion in Bank Indonesia Rupiah Securities (SRBI), indicating a shift toward lower-risk monetary instruments amid turbulence in equities and bonds.
Alongside capital outflows, Indonesia’s risk indicators also edged higher. The 5-year Credit Default Swap (CDS) premium rose to 75.31 basis points (bps) as of January 29, 2026, up from 73.05 bps on January 23, 2026. CDS reflects default risk for debt issuers, typically sovereigns or corporations.
This level marks the highest since November 6, 2025, when Indonesia’s CDS stood at 75.49 bps, signaling growing caution among global investors despite risk levels remaining relatively manageable.
Negative sentiment was further amplified by a sharp correction in the domestic stock market following MSCI’s announcement released on Tuesday (January 27, 2026), or early Wednesday Jakarta time. In its latest review, MSCI froze all index adjustments for Indonesian securities. As a result, new stocks lost opportunities to enter global indices, while existing constituents were unable to gain higher weightings even if fundamentals improved.
These conditions triggered more aggressive foreign selling and widened equity outflows last week. Nevertheless, on a cumulative basis for 2026 through January 29, foreign investors still posted net purchases of Rp4.84 trillion in equities and Rp6.18 trillion in SRBI, while remaining net sellers of Rp100 billion in the SBN market.
Bank Indonesia reaffirmed its commitment to strengthening coordination with the government and relevant authorities, while optimizing its policy mix to support Indonesia’s external economic resilience.
Foreign Flow Indonesia (Rp Triliun)
| Data Transaksi | SBN | Saham | SRBI | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2024–2 Jan 2025 | 0.32 | 1.94 | −117.00 | 1.08 |
| 6–9 Jan 2025 | −2.90 | −1.92 | 44.00 | −4.38 |
| 13–16 Jan 2025 | −4.17 | 0.01 | −541.00 | −9.57 |
| 20–23 Jan 2025 | 9.60 | −0.35 | 227.00 | 11.52 |
| 30 Jan 2025 | −0.43 | −0.40 | 5.00 | −0.82 |
| 3–6 Feb 2025 | 9.14 | −3.29 | −44.00 | 1.45 |
| 10–13 Feb 2025 | −2.51 | −2.42 | −468.00 | −9.61 |
| 17–20 Feb 2025 | 6.96 | −0.46 | 108.00 | 7.58 |
| 24–27 Feb 2025 | −1.24 | −7.31 | −178.00 | −10.33 |
| 3–6 Mar 2025 | 9.53 | 0.34 | −88.00 | 8.99 |
| 10–13 Mar 2025 | −5.25 | −1.92 | −297.00 | −10.15 |
| 17–20 Mar 2025 | 1.20 | −4.78 | −67.00 | −4.25 |
| 24–26 Mar 2025 | −0.51 | 2.63 | −19.00 | 1.93 |
| 8–10 Apr 2025 | −7.84 | −5.73 | −1047.00 | −24.04 |
| 14–16 Apr 2025 | 3.28 | −13.01 | −224.00 | −11.96 |
| 21–24 Apr 2025 | 11.13 | −1.33 | −744.00 | 2.36 |
| 28–30 Apr 2025 | 0.22 | −0.01 | 395.00 | 4.15 |
| 5–8 May 2025 | 6.88 | −2.70 | −407.00 | 0.12 |
| 14–15 May 2025 | −1.52 | 4.52 | 114.00 | 4.14 |
| 19–22 May 2025 | 14.13 | 1.54 | −95.00 | 14.73 |
| 26–27 May 2025 | 2.02 | 0.11 | −63.00 | 1.50 |
| 2–4 Jun 2025 | 5.19 | −3.98 | −569.00 | −4.48 |
| 10–12 Jun 2025 | 5.08 | 0.83 | −0.71 | 5.20 |
| 16–19 Jun 2025 | 3.47 | −1.78 | −3.72 | −2.04 |
| 23–25 Jun 2025 | 1.29 | −2.14 | 3.68 | 2.83 |
| 30 Jun–3 Jul 2025 | 15.14 | −2.31 | 2.04 | 10.79 |
| 3–10 Jul 2025 | −0.16 | −2.34 | −5.41 | −7.90 |
| 14–17 Jul 2025 | 0.38 | −1.91 | −8.95 | −10.49 |
| 21–24 Jul 2025 | 2.10 | 0.10 | −13.50 | −11.30 |
| 28–31 Jul 2025 | −1.37 | −2.27 | −12.60 | −16.24 |
| 4–7 Aug 2025 | 6.27 | 0.64 | 2.33 | 9.24 |
| 11–14 Aug 2025 | 7.88 | 5.37 | 2.05 | 15.31 |
| 19–22 Aug 2025 | −0.62 | 2.31 | −0.78 | 0.91 |
| 25–28 Aug 2025 | 7.93 | 2.62 | −10.79 | −0.25 |
| 1–3 Sep 2025 | −7.69 | −3.87 | −5.29 | −16.85 |
| 8–11 Sep 2025 | −5.45 | −2.22 | −6.57 | −14.24 |
| 15–18 Sep 2025 | −5.49 | 0.16 | −2.79 | −8.12 |
| 22–25 Sep 2025 | −2.16 | 4.51 | −5.06 | −2.17 |
| 29 Sep–2 Oct 2025 | −9.16 | −3.31 | 2.71 | −9.76 |
| 6–9 Oct 2025 | 6.43 | 2.48 | −1.19 | 6.43 |
| 13–16 Oct 2025 | −11.90 | −1.09 | −3.62 | −16.61 |
| 20–23 Oct 2025 | −2.73 | 3.08 | −1.28 | −0.94 |
| 27–30 Oct 2025 | −3.23 | 4.40 | −0.17 | 1.00 |
| 3–6 Nov 2025 | −4.42 | 2.54 | −2.69 | −4.58 |
| 10–13 Nov 2025 | −6.33 | 3.92 | −1.39 | −3.79 |
| 17–20 Nov 2025 | 2.66 | 3.93 | −4.30 | 2.29 |
| 24–27 Nov 2025 | 0.41 | 2.01 | 10.27 | 12.70 |
| 1–4 Dec 2025 | 1.06 | 2.11 | 10.92 | 14.08 |
| 8–11 Dec 2025 | 2.85 | 1.14 | −4.12 | −0.13 |
| 15–18 Dec 2025 | −0.62 | 0.60 | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| 22–23 Dec 2025 | 1.66 | 1.59 | 0.74 | 3.98 |
| 29–31 Dec 2025 | 1.66 | 1.23 | −0.46 | 2.43 |
| 5–8 Jan 2026 | −1.38 | 1.78 | 1.04 | 1.44 |
| 12–14 Jan 2026 | −8.15 | 3.08 | −2.64 | −7.71 |
| 19–22 Jan 2026 | −1.44 | −2.67 | −1.85 | −5.96 |
| 26–29 Jan 2026 | −2.77 | −12.40 | 2.61 | −12.50 |
Source: cnbcindonesia.com
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