DIGIVESTASI - The bank issuer with the fifth largest market capitalization on the stock exchange, PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI), repeatedly closed and recorded an all-time record high on Friday (5/1/2024). 
Until the end of trading today, BMRI shares strengthened 1.18% to a price of Rp 6,425 / unit. At the end of today's trading session, it became a new all-time record high (ATH) after the stock split. Meanwhile, BMRI's latest ATH was set yesterday at Rp 6,350/unit.

BMRI shares managed to surge and set a new record high today thanks to the potential benefits of this year's January Effect. Simply put, the January effect is a term for the upward trend of the stock market in January. 
In January, at least in the last ten years, the probability of BMRI's gain reached 80%, with the average monthly gain in January reaching 2.27%. Thus, the strengthening of BMRI's activities is likely to continue.  

In addition, the excitement of BMRI stock also comes in the context of market optimism that the era of high interest rates will end this year.  In the minutes of the US central bank's December 2023 meeting with the Federal Reserve released on Wednesday, the majority of Fed officials questioned whether their policy "is likely currently at its highest level or near its highest level."

This is in line with slowing inflation and the impact of interest rate hikes seems to be proceeding as expected. 
The market is optimistic that the Fed will be able to start cutting the benchmark rate at least by March 2024. Based on CMEGroup's FedWatch tool, market participants estimate the chance of a 25% basis point (bp) rate cut at 67%. 

In addition, the article's dot plot shows that market participants expect rate cuts over the next three years to bring inflation back to the 2% target. 
"In their forecasts, all participants point to an improving inflation outlook. "The baseline forecast suggests that a rate cut would be appropriate at the end of 2024," the FOMC wrote. 
In addition, sentiment ahead of the political year or ahead of the 2024 election which is only a month away also supports banking stocks, especially large banks, including BMRI shares. 

It is true that currency circulation tends to increase ahead of elections, and this can benefit banks. 
In fact, the sentiment driven by BMRI's stock rally today is supported by the improving performance of BMRI's subsidiaries and the prospect that BMRI's annual financial results in 2023 will set a record.  

Bank Mandiri's management noted that consumer loan disbursement is increasingly active. Since September 2023, Bank Mandiri's consumer credit distribution has grown by approximately 11% with credit quality maintained at an optimal level. 
Mandiri Banking Corporate Secretary Ali Usman is optimistic that consumer credit will grow better in 2024 through a series of strategies to work on the derivative business ecosystem of Bank Mandiri's wholesale customers, which is the main strength of Bank Mandiri's operations.