Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa believes that the World Bank has miscalculated by projecting Indonesia’s economic growth to slow to 4.7% in 2026, a figure that falls below the government’s 2026 state budget target of 5.4%.

“Even in the first quarter alone, growth could reach around 5.5% to 5.6% or even higher. That would imply the World Bank expects a sharp downturn, almost like a recession, if the annual average is only 4.6%. I think their calculation is incorrect,” Purbaya said at his office in Central Jakarta on Thursday.

He explained that the World Bank’s projection takes into account the impact of rising global oil prices, and he remains optimistic that the forecast will be revised once conditions return to normal. He also criticized the World Bank for creating negative sentiment toward Indonesia.

“If within a month oil prices return to normal levels, the World Bank will certainly revise its projection. However, they have already created negative sentiment. I will wait for their apology when oil prices normalize and they update their economic outlook,” he added.

According to Purbaya, the key priority is to ensure a conducive investment climate, effective implementation of programs, and a financial system that is ready to support economic growth. With these factors in place, he is confident that Indonesia’s economy will continue to grow positively.

“I will optimize all available economic drivers. The World Bank might be right, but I’m not sure. What is clear is that, based on my figures, conditions have improved and we will maintain that. Perhaps the World Bank does not yet understand our ‘Asian strategies,’ including those of President Prabowo,” Purbaya said.

World Bank Report

Previously, the World Bank projected that Indonesia’s economic growth would slow to 4.7% in 2026, down from its earlier estimate of 4.8%.

This projection is outlined in the latest East Asia & Pacific Economic Update report published in April 2026. The downward revision is attributed to the impact of escalating conflict in the Middle East, which has pushed up global energy prices.

“Indonesia’s economic growth is projected to slow to 4.7% due to pressures from higher oil prices and increased risk aversion sentiment, which will only be partially offset by commodity revenues and government investment initiatives,” the World Bank report stated.

The downgrade is also in line with a broader economic slowdown across the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region excluding China, which is projected to grow at 4.1% in 2026, lower than the previous estimate of 4.4%.