The Indonesian rupiah continues to weaken against the US dollar and has now settled above the Rp17,000 per US dollar level, which appears to have become a new equilibrium point. As of today, the rupiah opened lower against the dollar at the start of trading. Based on Refinitiv data on Tuesday (April 14, 2026), the currency began the session in negative territory, depreciating by 0.09% to Rp17,110 per US dollar. This decline followed the previous session on Monday (April 13, 2026), when the rupiah had already slipped slightly by 0.06% to Rp17,095 per US dollar.

The rupiah’s position above Rp17,000 has actually persisted since April 1, 2026. According to Bank Indonesia’s Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor), the exchange rate averaged Rp17,002 per US dollar on that date. Since then, the rupiah has not returned below that threshold and even weakened further to Rp17,122 per US dollar on April 13, 2026.

This level has surpassed the peak reached during the 1998 Asian financial crisis. At that time, the rupiah, which had been stable at around Rp2,500 per US dollar, plunged dramatically to above Rp15,000 in early 1998 and even touched Rp16,800 per US dollar at its weakest point.

Despite the current pressure pushing the rupiah beyond those crisis levels, Mohammad Faisal, Executive Director of the Center of Reform on Economics (CORE), believes that Indonesia’s economic condition today is far stronger than it was in 1998.

The key difference lies in the strength of the real sector. Back in 1998, the real sector was extremely fragile and unable to sustain economic growth, which ultimately triggered negative investor sentiment and led to a deep depreciation of the rupiah.

He explained that the distinguishing factors include the real sector, fiscal conditions, and the financial sector. Compared to 1998 and even the 2020 pandemic period, the real sector today is more resilient, even though economic growth had been relatively high in 1997 but unsustainable.

He emphasized that strengthening the real sector is crucial because it serves as the backbone of the economy and directly contributes to GDP formation. If this sector remains strong, particularly through job creation, Indonesia’s economic resilience will be maintained despite global pressures.

He also pointed out signs of improvement, noting that retail sales increased during the last five months of 2025 and continued into the first three months of 2026. However, after the COVID-19 pandemic, the real sector experienced significant weakening, which now needs to be reversed.

Fiscal conditions are another key concern. Debt levels in Indonesia and other countries remain elevated following the pandemic, so the government is expected to manage the fiscal deficit carefully, keeping it below 3% to maintain market confidence.

He added that institutional and financial sector conditions are now much stronger than in the past, enhancing the country’s resilience and preparedness against potential crises.

Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia’s Head of Monetary and Securities Asset Management Department, Erwin Gunawan Hutapea, stated that the central bank has learned valuable lessons from the 1998 crisis in dealing with exchange rate and financial market pressures.

He explained that under current uncertainty, Bank Indonesia prefers to allow market mechanisms to function effectively rather than imposing foreign exchange controls. The goal is to encourage capital inflows based on economic fundamentals, while the central bank focuses on maintaining market stability and absorbing excess liquidity without disrupting market operations.

To safeguard the exchange rate and domestic financial markets, Bank Indonesia utilizes multiple layers of defense, including foreign exchange reserves and swap agreements with other central banks.

Indonesia has established bilateral swap arrangements with countries such as China, Japan, and South Korea through the Chiang Mai Initiative, along with multilateral schemes involving ASEAN countries.

Erwin stressed that lessons from the 1998 crisis have led to stronger safety nets at both regional and global levels, ensuring that Indonesia now has sufficient protective measures in place.

However, Bank Indonesia also encourages businesses to implement hedging strategies to manage exchange rate risks. These instruments act like insurance by locking in exposure to currency fluctuations.

With proper hedging, businesses do not need to directly purchase US dollars in the spot market but can instead use banking instruments, helping distribute dollar demand more evenly.

Chief Economist of BCA, David Sumual, added that the financial services industry has strengthened systemic safeguards to prevent a repeat of past crises, including maintaining high capital adequacy ratios (CAR), which currently stand at around 25.83%, well above the minimum requirement of 8%.

This high CAR reflects the banking sector’s cautious approach shaped by past crisis experiences.

As a result, despite the rupiah trading above Rp17,000 per US dollar, its movements have not exhibited extreme volatility like in 1998.

According to David, for businesses, the key concern is not the exchange rate level itself but its volatility. Excessive fluctuations can undermine confidence in making business decisions.

Director of Economic Stabilization Strategy at the Ministry of Finance, Noor Faisal Achmad, also noted that the current depreciation of the rupiah is still relatively better compared to currencies of other countries with similar economic capacity.

He highlighted that this stability is supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals, as reflected in the manufacturing PMI remaining in expansion territory at 50.1 in March 2026 and credit growth of around 9.37% year-on-year.

Faisal emphasized that the pressure on the rupiah remains moderate compared to its peers, meaning the depreciation is still under control.

Bank Indonesia data also shows that the rupiah has the lowest volatility among seven comparable currencies, at 4.75, lower than those of India, the Philippines, Thailand, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, and South Africa.

In terms of depreciation, the rupiah has also performed relatively well. Since the beginning of the year, it has weakened by 2.91%, which is comparable to South Korea, India, and Turkey.

Faisal concluded by affirming that Indonesia’s economic fundamentals remain strong compared to its peers, supported by controlled inflation, prudent fiscal policy, and a debt ratio that remains below the 60% threshold.